Analysts Raise Optimistic Outlook for Bitcoin Approval In the U.S.
(Originally posted on : Crypto News – iGaming.org )
The likelihood that at least one spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be approved and launched in the United States this year has increased, according to analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas raised the chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF debuting in 2023 from 50% to 65%. They had previously assigned a 50% probability.
Major Institutions Lead the Way
The submissions by big organizations, including as BlackRock, Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie, aiming to establish spot Bitcoin ETFs to increase accessibility to Bitcoin investments are credited with the uptick in optimism. Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has previously rejected petitions of a similar nature, analysts feel this time is different, particularly in the case of BlackRock’s proposal given the firm’s track record of successful ETF approvals.
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Gensler’s Shifting Position and SEC’s Signal
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler minimized his involvement in cryptocurrency-related issues and stressed the presence of four other commissioners. This interview has been interpreted as a possible indicator that the SEC’s position may be changing. Analysts pointed out that Gensler’s evasion on the subject of cryptocurrency may be a sign of a change in his strategy, rendering some of the anti-crypto stances unworkable from a political standpoint for him.
Further supporting the idea that the SEC would be more open to considering Bitcoin ETFs is the SEC’s apparent clearance of Coinbase’s bitcoin trading platform, with CEO Brian Armstrong being ordered to delist all cryptocurrencies save bitcoin. This view is further supported by Coinbase’s participation as a significant surveillance-sharing agreement partner and custodian in several ETF filings.
Grayscale’s Case as a Catalyst
Another crucial factor would be the pending SEC action against crypto asset management Grayscale. If Grayscale prevails in the legal dispute, according to Bloomberg analysts, the SEC will be compelled to accept all pending applications for bitcoin ETFs. Grayscale filed a complaint after the SEC denied its attempt to turn the biggest bitcoin trust into an ETF last year. A victory for Grayscale might have an impact on how the SEC makes decisions.
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Potential Hurdle in Gensler’s Stance
Although there are good chances that a Bitcoin ETF would be approved, Gary Gensler’s constant criticism of the status of the cryptocurrency trading exchanges might prove to be a barrier. In the past, he has voiced his worries about problems with fraud, manipulation, and misuse in the cryptocurrency industry.
The present market dynamics and recent developments have heightened hope for the adoption of a Bitcoin ETF in the United States. The active participation of major institutions, Gensler’s shifting posture, and the conclusion of Grayscale’s case all improve the possibility of a successful outcome. Gensler’s concerns about certain components of the cryptocurrency market, however, could still create some issues that need to be resolved before a Bitcoin ETF is implemented in the US.