BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Issues Cautious Warning on Bitcoin Price

The man of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, made a gloomy forecast about the future of Bitcoin (BTC) in a blog post that was published on January 5. Renowned bitcoin analyst Hayes predicts that the anticipated increases in the year-to-date value of Bitcoin will cause a 20% to 30% correction in the price of the cryptocurrency by March 2024. He even goes so far as to brace for what he refers to as a “vicious washout” of cryptocurrency travelers in March of this year.

Hayes pinpoints one particular event that may set off this possible decline: the US market’s opening for spot Bitcoin ETF trading. He issues a severe warning in the event that the expectation of a significant fiat influx into these ETFs propels Bitcoin’s price over $60,000 and approaches its top of $70,000 in 2021. As a result of an abrupt pullback in dollar liquidity, Hayes believes that this scenario may cause a substantial correction of between 30% and 40%.

“Imagine if the anticipation of hundreds of billions of fiat flowing into these ETFs at a future date propels Bitcoin above $60,000 and close to its 2021 all-time high of $70,000. I could see a 30% to 40% correction due to a dollar liquidity rug pull,” cautions Arthur Hayes.

To allay his fears, Hayes adopts a calculated risk-reward strategy by choosing not to buy Bitcoin until the pivotal dates in March have passed. “I think I’m a decent trader when I’m focused,” he says, expressing his confidence in his trading ability. In late February, I plan to try to top-tick the market before purchasing a substantial put option.”

Hayes’ cautious stance adds a degree of complication to current conversations about Bitcoin’s direction as the market navigates these possible storm clouds. The complex interplay between investor mood and market dynamics is becoming increasingly important as players predict how the landscape of digital currencies will develop.