Bitwise Analyst’s 50/50 Call on Ethereum ETF Approval and Bitcoin’s $88k Projection

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen provides some insightful analysis of the upcoming judgment as interest in the likelihood of Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) receiving permission grows.

Putting the possibility of spot Ethereum ETF certification at 50/50, Rasmussen recently analyzed the odds in an interview with Yahoo Finance. The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) highly perceptive position is the source of this ambiguity since it has the potential to influence the outcome in any direction.

Reflecting on past sentiments, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Global Head of Research, echoed Rasmussen’s sentiment, projecting a similar 50% chance of approval back in May. However, external predictors such as Polymarket suggest a slightly dimmer outlook, estimating a 44% probability of greenlighting Ethereum ETFs.

Awaiting the SEC’s Verdict

The SEC’s decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application, due by May 23, looms large, with implications for concurrent applications. This deliberative approach mirrors previous evaluations of spot Bitcoin ETF proposals.

Drawing parallels to Bitcoin ETF rejections, Rasmussen hinted at potential legal showdowns akin to Grayscale’s tussle, which eventually led to a reevaluation of Bitcoin ETFs. However, the necessity and efficacy of such legal maneuvers in the Ethereum ETF realm remain uncertain.

On January 10, Bitwise hailed a historic milestone with the approval of its Bitcoin equivalent, even though it still does not have a live application for a spot Ethereum ETF. Rasmussen praised the performance of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), pointing out that Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF (BITB) had amassed an astonishing $1 billion in assets, which had fueled an inflow of over $15 billion into ETFs.

In the future, Rasmussen wondered how spot Bitcoin ETFs will affect cryptocurrency prices and predicted that institutional participation would rise in line with current patterns. He saw Ethereum and other digital assets traveling in a similar direction, with Ethereum ETFs perhaps following suit.