Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes Predicts $1 Million Bitcoin with Weak Yen Resolution

Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced by global geopolitical and economic factors. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of Bitmex and current CIO of Maelstrom, foresees significant implications for Bitcoin if the U.S. addresses the current weak yen issue.

In his latest newsletter, “The Easy Button,” Hayes emphasizes the crucial role of the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. He labels it the “most important global economic variable” due to its potential to prompt Federal Reserve action.

A persistently weak yen could force China to devalue its currency to stay competitive with Japanese products. Similarly, a depreciating Chinese yuan would challenge the U.S. industrial sector, pushing more manufacturing abroad.

Federal Reserve’s Potential Response and Risks

Hayes suggests the Federal Reserve might opt for an easier solution by swapping freshly printed dollars for yens. This move would allow the Bank of Japan to intervene in the FX market effectively. Consequently, China could continue its monetary expansion without economic imbalance.

However, mishandling this strategy could jeopardize the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency. It could lose significant value against other fiat currencies and Bitcoin. Hayes argues that if his prediction holds, “it is trivial for any institutional investor to buy one of the US-listed Bitcoin ETFs,” considering Bitcoin as the “best-performing asset in the face of global fiat debasement.”

Hayes concludes, “When something is done about the weak yen, I will mathematically guestimate how flows into the Bitcoin complex will ratchet the price to $1 million and possibly beyond.”