VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million by 2050

In a bold projection, asset manager VanEck suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) could soar to $2.9 million by 2050. This forecast, shared in a Wednesday report, hinges on several ambitious assumptions.

VanEck envisions Bitcoin becoming a crucial element of the global monetary system. The report highlights the growing geopolitical tensions and escalating debt servicing costs as factors undermining the current financial system. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck and co-author of the report, elaborated on this during a CNBC interview: “As we look at the world right now, we see enormous economic imbalances, rising distrust in existing institutions and continued deglobalization.”

Sigel pointed to the misuse of capital since the global financial crisis, with G7 governments excessively printing money and funding unattainable goals. He emphasized, “Bitcoin … is the ultimate hedge against this rising fiscal recklessness.”

Projections and Assumptions

In VanEck’s base case scenario, Bitcoin would secure a significant role in global trade and finance. The report predicts BTC will account for 10% of international trade settlements and 5% of global GDP. Additionally, Bitcoin could emerge as a global reserve asset, taking up 2.5% of international currency reserves, rivaling the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen.

If these assumptions hold true, Bitcoin’s value could increase 44 times, with an annual growth rate of 16% from its current price of just below $65,000. This surge would elevate its market capitalization to an astounding $61 trillion.

The report also highlights the importance of layer-2 networks in overcoming Bitcoin blockchain’s scaling issues. VanEck estimates that these networks could collectively be worth $7.6 trillion by 2050, using a similar valuation framework as for Ethereum layer 2s.

Even with the bullish prediction, VanEck notes a few hazards that might prevent Bitcoin from expanding. Innovation is required to meet miners’ growing energy demands, and transaction processing revenue needs to increase dramatically to offset the half-yearly reduction in mining incentives. Furthermore, there is a serious risk from government initiatives to impose restrictions or outright outlaw Bitcoin.

Alternative cryptocurrency competition and possible overreach by major financial institutions are additional issues. These elements may have an impact on Bitcoin’s future course and ability to hit the estimated $2.9 million mark.

VanEck’s audacious forecast emphasizes the revolutionary potential of Bitcoin while drawing attention to the difficulties and unknowns that still remain.