Polymarket Shows Donald Trump’s Lead Over Kamala Harris Expanding

On leading prediction site Polymarket, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election have increased dramatically, hitting a two-month high. Based on the most recent data, traders are assigning the former president a 55.8% chance of winning, while Vice President Kamala Harris is given a 43.8% chance. With almost $1.6 billion in wagers on the 2017 election, Polymarket is a reflection of the increasing belief in Trump’s possible return.

Polymarket and Other Platforms

Polymarket’s numbers mark the highest point for Trump since President Joe Biden announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, opening the door for Harris to lead the Democratic ticket. Another prediction platform, Kalshi, which was recently granted permission to offer U.S. election-based contracts, also shows Trump leading Harris, though by a slightly smaller margin: 52% to 48%. PredictIt, a well-known U.S.-based prediction market, shows a closer race, with Trump leading 53% to 52%.

While Polymarket is technically unavailable to U.S. citizens due to restrictions, some users bypass this by using VPNs. On the other hand, Kalshi and PredictIt remain fully accessible to U.S. residents, providing a legal option for those interested in betting on the election outcome.

Trump’s rising odds come after Biden’s decision not to run for reelection, creating uncertainty in the Democratic field. Harris, as the presumptive candidate, faces mounting pressure to secure widespread support. Meanwhile, Trump’s increased favorability among traders indicates a belief in his ability to secure a second term in office.

As the November 2024 election approaches, these platforms will continue to be key indicators of public sentiment, with traders closely monitoring political developments.