Bloomberg Analyst Mike McGlone Warns Of Asset Reversion Across Markets

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist with Bloomberg, is warning that US financial markets could be heading toward a steep correction. In a recent post on X, he pointed to indicators that suggest stocks, Bitcoin, and commodities like oil and copper may all be in for a rough ride.

Good to know

• McGlone expects a major reversion across markets based on historical valuation patterns.
• He predicts Bitcoin could fall to $10,000, with other assets like crude oil and copper also dropping.
• The S&P 500’s ratio to both GDP and gold is near levels that preceded past market crashes.

His analysis leans heavily on historical patterns. He highlighted the current ratio of the S&P 500 to GDP and the S&P 500 to gold, both of which are now hovering at levels seen before major downturns such as the Great Depression, the dot-com bust, and the 2008 financial crisis.

McGlone believes a “normal reversion” could be ahead. His base case includes a 50% drop in US stocks, oil prices falling to $40 per barrel, and Bitcoin retreating all the way to $10,000. That would mean a 90% drawdown for most crypto tokens.

“The problem is that the discombobulation is coming with US stock market cap vs. GDP and the rest of the world, the highest in about 100 years,” he wrote.

He also predicts copper sliding to $3 per pound and the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizing at 3%. The one outlier, in his view, is gold. He expects it to rise to $4,000, supported by its role as a safe haven asset when markets are under pressure.

McGlone added that the US economy has a built-in tendency to correct itself. He sees political and market pushback against President Trump’s tariff policy and other austerity measures as part of that process. If those measures fail, he believes the pressure will shift toward upcoming elections. But if the rebalancing efforts succeed, he thinks they could reset the global economic structure.

Even though the projected figures sound extreme, McGlone argues they aren’t out of line historically. “The magnitude of the downside is normal,” he said, referencing past market reversions.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading just above $88,000, showing a 3% gain over the past week. But if McGlone’s outlook plays out, there could be much more volatility ahead.