Arthur Hayes Explains Why Money Printing Still Favors Bitcoin

Markets feel jittery; Arthur Hayes sounds calm. In a long chat with Kyle Chasse, the BitMEX founder mapped out why he thinks crypto now sits in the “real meat” of the cycle and why policy-driven liquidity sits at the center of it all.

Good to Know

• Hayes says mid-cycle momentum is starting and favors Bitcoin in heavy money-printing regimes
• He expects rate cuts and new credit pipes to push risk assets
• He argues stablecoins could grow into a double-digit-trillion market and reshape short-term rates

Hayes ties the next leg to politics and credit. He says President Trump will choose cash and credit expansion over restraint. In his words, “He’s going to provide more free sht… which is provide free sht and print money. And that’s what he’s going to do.” He even floated leadership changes at the U.S. central bank—“No more Powell”—and tweaks to tools like interest on reserves and the discount window to grease the system.

The mechanism, in his view, is simple. Cut the price of money and people lever up. “If I cut rates from four and a half to two, well, then you’re going to take more leverage and buy more stocks, and max out that credit card, and buy a new car, and take out a home equity loan.” That psychology powers risk assets—and Bitcoin benefits the most because of its fixed supply.

Bitcoin is Pure

He rejected the idea that crypto lags traditional markets. Hayes framed Bitcoin as the purest debasement trade: “Bitcoin has been the best performing asset on this currency debasement theme… across any asset class.” Deflate stock indexes or housing by gold and the story looks different; deflate by Bitcoin and the outperformance is extreme. For him, that is the core reason BTC remains the fastest horse when policymakers expand balance sheets.

Credit creation matters more than the “real economy,” he added. “I don’t really care a [__] about the real economy. All I care about is the credit and the credit’s going to flow and it’s going to flow into Bitcoin.” He pointed to banks regaining capacity—citing Wells Fargo’s cap removal and a “450 to 500 billion” balance-sheet estimate from Zoltan Pozsar—as another liquidity engine that indirectly lifts crypto.

Stablecoins play a starring role in his roadmap. Hayes laid out how offshore dollars and demand from the Global South can pour into regulated dollar tokens held in T-bills and bank deposits, forming the base layer for DeFi usage. “The best thing about Bitcoin is that we don’t care where the money is going… as there’s more dollars yuan euro yen in the world… this asset that we own that is a fixed supply is going to go up asymptotically.” In his telling, stablecoin growth familiarizes millions with wallets, nudges them into DeFi, and pushes more capital toward volatile crypto—Bitcoin included.

He also argued the Fed could lose influence over the front end of the curve if Treasury sells T-bills directly to captive stablecoin buyers at yields of its choosing. That change, he says, would tilt real power toward the issuer of bills, not the setter of Fed funds—another path to easier conditions that markets like BTC tend to love.

Watching the Money Printer

Hayes isn’t hanging his hat on a single price level. He watches the expected path of money creation. If expectations get too hot, he trims. Otherwise, he keeps riding. He doesn’t buy the rigid four-year script either. The world, he says, is shifting from unipolar to multipolar, and governments print to keep voters calm: “So, I think we’re in this first inning of this massive change… therefore I don’t believe in the four-year cycle. I believe that we can continue ripping… because of this massive macro overlay.”

Altcoins get a sharper filter in his playbook. He thinks investors are finally rewarding projects that share revenue and buy back tokens—and shunning those that don’t. “If you’re a project that is not buying back your token… we don’t want to touch it.” He still puts Bitcoin at the center of the macro trade, while treating higher-beta names as tactical—especially around unlock calendars and positioning.

In short, Hayes’ map runs through policy, credit, and a fixed-supply asset designed for a world that keeps adding money. Rate cuts, fresh bank capacity, sovereign wealth deals, and a stablecoin wave all point to the same outcome. Liquidity finds an outlet. He believes Bitcoin remains that outlet.