Kraken Keen On Regulated Prediction Markets After $100 Million Small Exchange Deal

Kraken has moved deeper into the regulated trading space after acquiring Small Exchange from IG Group in a $100 million transaction. The purchase marks a major step toward creating a fully U.S.-based crypto derivatives platform, complete with clearing, matching, and risk systems all under one regulated framework.

Good to Know

• Small Exchange is licensed by the CFTC as a designated contract market.
• The deal gives Kraken a direct route into U.S.-regulated futures trading.
• Kraken may also launch a regulated prediction market later this year.

The Small Exchange, registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), gives Kraken immediate access to a licensed marketplace that can handle digital asset futures and similar products. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi said the acquisition will allow Kraken to unify its futures, spot, and margin products in one ecosystem.

“This step connects spot, futures and margin products inside a single regulated liquidity system, reducing fragmentation, lowering funding latency and bringing onshore the kind of access and performance that has mostly existed offshore,” Sethi said.

Sethi added that integrating exchange, clearing, and risk management functions under one roof aligns Kraken with global standards seen across traditional exchanges like CME or ICE. Analysts believe the acquisition positions Kraken to serve both institutional and retail traders seeking compliant access to digital derivatives.

The move reflects a growing overlap between mainstream finance and crypto, as major institutions increasingly turn to regulated products such as futures, options, and tokenized assets. Kraken’s purchase signals its intent to build a U.S. base for such offerings rather than rely on offshore structures.

The exchange also confirmed it is exploring a regulated prediction market, potentially giving users the ability to trade contracts tied to real-world events. However, that idea has already drawn attention from regulators.

Nevada Regulators Warn Operators Over Prediction Market Ties

While Kraken expands its regulated footprint, officials in Nevada have taken a firmer stance against event-based contracts. The Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) recently cautioned operators that partnering with firms offering prediction market products could threaten their gaming licenses.

Chairman Mike Dreitzer issued a formal notice declaring that “sports event contracts are wagers,” specifically citing companies like KalshiEx, Crypto.com, and Robinhood. The board’s warning followed a court decision against Crypto.com, which regulators said validated their interpretation that prediction markets qualify as gambling.

Kalshi, which is fighting a cease-and-desist order in court, argues that its markets are federally regulated under the CFTC and should not fall under state gaming rules. Even so, Nevada regulators made their position clear—only licensed sportsbooks can legally offer contracts tied to sporting events within the state, and all non-sporting predictions, such as political outcomes, remain strictly prohibited.

Dreitzer added that any Nevada licensee found collaborating with such markets could face disciplinary action or even loss of license eligibility. The warning underscores the growing regulatory divide between financial and gaming authorities as prediction markets evolve into a hybrid space between trading and wagering.