CLARITY Act Passage Odds Cut to 30% as Senate Vote Faces Challenges

Galaxy Research Lowers CLARITY Act Outlook After Final Senate Text

Galaxy Research lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 30% after the Senate released combined legislative text, increasing pressure on lawmakers to resolve disputes before the August recess.

The revised outlook came from Galaxy Research Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn after lawmakers published the 616-page bill, which combines proposals from the Senate Agriculture Committee and Senate Banking Committee with new provisions covering ethics, enforcement, stablecoins, and custody rules.

Thorn previously estimated the bill had a 50% chance of becoming law after committee progress, but the firm reduced its outlook as negotiations became more difficult and the Senate calendar tightened. Galaxy Research previously lowered CLARITY Act odds to 50% as lawmakers faced mounting pressure to complete the legislation.

The head of research detailed in a July 24 article on X:

“We are lowering our estimate of the probability that CLARITY becomes law in 2026 to 30%.”

Senate Vote Math Creates Challenge for Bipartisan Support

The CLARITY Act contains 104 numbered sections across four divisions and preserves several industry priorities, including developer protections, self-custody safeguards, and rules for digital asset intermediaries. The bill also creates new enforcement tools targeting crypto-related fraud, including elder scams and “pig-butchering” operations, while establishing requirements for qualified digital asset custodians.

Thorn highlighted the challenge facing supporters:

“The bill may not even have a clear majority-party majority in hand, much less the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster.”

The vote calculation has become the central challenge for supporters, with lawmakers needing bipartisan backing to move the legislation through the Senate.

Ethics Provisions Become Major Point of Disagreement

The latest CLARITY Act draft introduced a new ethics division restricting certain senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while serving in office.

The proposal establishes disclosure requirements and assigns enforcement authority to the Department of Justice (DOJ). The provision has drawn criticism from lawmakers who want stronger safeguards around conflicts of interest and financial crime.

Democratic lawmakers involved in negotiations pushed for stronger ethics rules, consumer protections, illicit finance safeguards, and market integrity provisions. Seven Democrats, including Senators Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, and Raphael Warnock, said the current text fell short. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) separately criticized the draft, calling for stronger measures to prevent financial crime.

The dispute has added another challenge for negotiators attempting to build support for the legislation before the Senate’s August recess.

Crypto Industry Watches Legislative Window

The CLARITY Act would establish federal rules for digital asset classifications, exchange oversight, custody requirements, and regulatory responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The framework has drawn attention from crypto companies and investors seeking clearer rules for operating in the United States.

With the Senate approaching its August recess, the remaining legislative window has become a key factor in the bill’s outlook. Crypto businesses and voters continue watching whether lawmakers can resolve disagreements and advance the legislation before election-year priorities reshape the congressional schedule.

The debate follows a longer effort to create federal crypto market rules, with lawmakers previously struggling to finalize a framework. The latest round of negotiations has kept the CLARITY Act’s future uncertain as supporters work to overcome political divisions.

The ethics provisions remain one of the biggest points of disagreement, with lawmakers debating government accountability, oversight standards, and financial crime protections. Democratic lawmakers criticized the CLARITY Act draft after raising concerns about the proposal’s safeguards.