Analyst Says Gold May Outperform Bitcoin For Years

Market debate over safe haven assets has resurfaced as new commentary questions whether Bitcoin can maintain its long term edge over gold during the coming decade.

Good to Know

• Analyst Willy Woo argues a long running valuation trend between Bitcoin and gold has broken.
• Quantum computing risk is cited as a key factor weighing on Bitcoin sentiment.
• Gold has gained more than 12% since the start of the year while Bitcoin remains down over 20% year to date.

Analyst Warns Of Structural Shift In Bitcoin Versus Gold Narrative

Willy Woo, an on chain analyst followed by more than 1.2 million users on X, said Bitcoin no longer tracks the same trajectory against gold that defined the previous twelve years of market behavior. He said:

“12-year trend broken. BTC should be valued a lot higher relative to gold. Should be. It’s not. The valuation trend broke down once quantum came into awareness.

Don’t read this post if you want to stay high on hopium instead of seeing things as they are.”

Argument centers on growing awareness of quantum computing and its theoretical ability to weaken current cryptographic systems used across blockchain networks. Market participants, according to Woo, have already begun factoring that uncertainty into pricing.

Quantum Risk Seen As Lingering Overhang For Years

Woo believes upgrades could eventually introduce quantum resistant signatures that protect future transactions. Concerns remain, however, about coins tied to early wallets that are no longer accessible. Woo wrote:

“Likely, BTC will be patched with quantum-resistant signatures. This doesn’t fix the issue of four million lost coins coming back into circulation. I’d say it’s 75% chance that lost coins will not be frozen by a protocol hard fork…

The market has started pricing in the return of these lost coins ahead of time. This process completes once the ‘Q-Day’ risk is off the table. Until then BTC/USD will price in this risk. Q-Day is five to 15 years away. That’s a long time trading with a cloud over its head…”

Return of coins believed to belong to early adopters, including holdings associated with Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, could materially change supply dynamics if cryptographic defenses were ever bypassed.

Macro Backdrop May Favor Traditional Hard Assets

Woo linked outlook to a broader macroeconomic cycle, arguing that global deleveraging pressures tend to push institutional capital toward traditional stores of value rather than emerging digital assets:

“Unfortunately, the next 10 years are when BTC is most needed. It’s the end of the long-term debt cycle, it’s where macro investors and sovereigns run to hard assets like gold to shelter from global debt deleveraging. Hence, gold moons without BTC.”

Market pricing reflects that divergence so far. Bitcoin traded at $66,377 at the time referenced, showing a decline of more than 20% since the beginning of the year. Gold traded near $4,981 per ounce, marking a gain exceeding 12% over the same period.