Bank Analysts Say Halving Cycle No Longer Dominant in BTC Pricing

Standard Chartered has issued a revised outlook for bitcoin, signaling a shift in how the bank interprets long-used cycle indicators and the role of ETF-related demand. Analysts outlined a new framework that lowers long-term price expectations while reshaping assumptions about market behavior.

Good to Know

• The bank says ETF demand weakens the halving cycle influence.
• BTC price projections through 2028 have been sharply reduced.
• Analysts expect the all-time high to be broken in the first half of 2026.

Bank Analysis Points to ETF Influence Surpassing Historical Halving Patterns

In a note shared online by Vaneck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered analysts argued that past halving-based models no longer capture the main forces guiding the market. They pointed to ETF flows as a stronger variable, shifting bitcoin price behavior away from the familiar pattern of peaks roughly 18 months after each halving.

The analysts explained that the historical cycle logic functioned only in environments where US-listed ETFs did not exist. According to the bank, ETF participation introduces a steady layer of demand that reduces the halving event impact. Analysts expect a new all-time high above the current $126,000 record from October 6, 2025 to confirm the structural change, with that break anticipated during the first half of 2026.

Sigel highlighted the analysis on social media platform X, noting how institutional research groups are beginning to revisit long-standing assumptions underpinning bitcoin cycle studies.

Standard Chartered Cuts Multiyear Bitcoin Targets

The updated outlook includes a reduced set of price projections across several years. The bank now places its 2025 forecast at $100,000, down from an earlier figure of $200,000. Projections for 2026 have been lowered to $150,000 from $300,000. The 2027 target was adjusted to $225,000 from $400,000, while the 2028 figure moved from $500,000 to $300,000.

Analysts say the reductions reflect new expectations tied to liquidity, ETF-driven flows, and changes in participation from regulated investment vehicles. Even so, broader commentary within the report maintains a constructive view on the long-term path for bitcoin adoption. Institutional inflows and the maturing role of exchange-traded products are seen as part of the evolving structure of the market, even as near-term caution remains present.

FAQ

Why does Standard Chartered believe the halving cycle is less relevant now?

Analysts say ETF participation introduces a steadier demand pattern that weakens the historical link between halving events and price peaks.

What is the bank timeline for a new all-time high?

They expect bitcoin to move above the $126,000 record sometime in the first half of 2026.

How much were long-term forecasts reduced?

Targets through 2028 were cut substantially, with reductions ranging from 40 percent to nearly 50 percent depending on the year.

Does the bank remain positive on bitcoin long term?

Yes. The analysis notes that institutional adoption and ETF usage continue to support bitcoin structural trajectory.