Bitcoin Halving No Longer Tells the Whole Story

People used to rely on the familiar ups and downs of the crypto market, timed neatly around Bitcoin’s halving events. But if you’re still counting on that old four-year pattern to guide your expectations, Bitwise’s Matt Hougan has a different take.

Good to know

• The impact of Bitcoin halving is shrinking over time.
• ETFs and institutional adoption are taking center stage now.
• U.S. regulatory efforts are picking up and may reshape crypto’s path.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes the old playbook for predicting crypto cycles no longer holds up. The classic four-year pattern, once driven largely by Bitcoin halving events, has started to lose relevance, he says.

“The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker,” Hougan explained, pointing specifically to the decreasing impact of halving events. “The importance of the Bitcoin halving falls by half every four years.”

But it’s not just halving losing steam. The landscape around crypto has shifted. For starters, the steady rollout of Bitcoin ETFs is changing how capital flows into digital assets. According to Hougan, that trend began in 2024 and will likely stretch out over five to ten years.

Another shift? Institutions. Large players like pension funds, endowments, and banks are only beginning to look seriously at crypto. While ETFs are still working their way into national account platforms, Hougan sees broader institutional involvement as just getting off the ground.

Then there’s regulation—something that used to scare off investors. That’s changing, too. Hougan points to January 2025 as the moment when real regulatory progress started taking shape. And with new policies unfolding over the next few years, he expects the framework to mature steadily.

One of the clearest signs of change came recently with the passage of the GENIUS Act. For Hougan, it’s a turning point. He said:

“Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come.”

The GENIUS Act, passed earlier this month, helped clear the path for that to happen.

So what does this mean for the market? In Hougan’s view, the future will be shaped less by Bitcoin’s built-in supply mechanics and more by outside forces—longer-term ones like adoption, regulation, and product innovation.

“All this suggests to me that the long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic ‘four-year cycle’ forces, to the extent those exist. And that 2026 will be a good year.”