Bitcoin Still Massively Undervalued Says PlanB Using Stock to Flow

Bitcoin is still trading well below its all-time high, but quant analyst PlanB remains confident that the market has much more room to run in this current cycle. Using his stock-to-flow model as a guide, he believes the cryptocurrency is still undervalued and has strong upside potential over the next few years.

Good to know

• Bitcoin is trading near $104,300, well below PlanB’s cycle average target.
• The stock-to-flow model suggests a potential average price of $500,000 during this cycle.
• PlanB expects the current bull market to extend for three more years.

PlanB, known for applying the stock-to-flow model to Bitcoin, sees no signs of this cycle topping out. He explains that the model, which links price to scarcity, indicates an average valuation of $500,000 for Bitcoin in the current four-year cycle. With Bitcoin now around $104,000, he believes it is still “very undervalued.”

He shared in a recent video, “Bitcoin price [is] at $104,000, which is still far away from the stock-to-flow value of $500,000 based on fundamentals, scarcity fundamentals. That’s what I expect the average over this four-year cycle to be. So we’re still far away from that. But we’re also still only one year in the cycle, we have three years to go and so I think Bitcoin is very undervalued.”

ETF excitement gave false start to rally

Reflecting on this year’s earlier price action, PlanB pointed out that Bitcoin made an early jump when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. However, he considers that move a temporary spike, not the true beginning of the bull market.

“We made a fake loop in bull market territory after the January 2024 [spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds] ETF introductions. And we’re now right back at where all the bull markets in the past have started. So it’s a very bullish signal if you ask me,” he said.

Bull market predictions range from $250K to $1M

Looking ahead, PlanB remains optimistic. He believes Bitcoin is already in a confirmed bull market, and the range for an average price during this phase could fall anywhere between $250,000 and $1 million.

“[Bitcoin] is currently in a bull market, targeting… let’s say $250,000 to $1 million range for the average price in this cycle,” he said, suggesting the potential for an 860% price increase from current levels.

At time of writing Bitcoin is trading at $104,959 according to CoinMarketCap data, up almost 2% in the last 24 hours.