Decoding the 94% Profitability Claim of Bitcoin – Is it True?

A widely shared price chart on social media claims that Bitcoin has been profitable for 94% of its history, but a closer examination suggests this might not be the whole story. The chart, starting from 2010, shows Bitcoin’s profitability excluding its peak in 2021, as you can see closely in the below.

The key takeaway from the chart is the importance of avoiding impulsive purchases, especially during peak hype periods like the all-time high in 2021. It’s a fact that most Bitcoin purchases happen during these hype phases.

Interestingly, the chart represents periods when Bitcoin’s price was lower than the current $43,000 (indicated by the green line) and times it was higher (red line). This means that for 94% of its history, Bitcoin’s price was lower than it is today, and only for 6% of the time, it was higher.

However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate that Bitcoin was profitable on 94% of the days. It merely shows that the current price is higher than most of its past prices. This distinction is crucial for understanding Bitcoin’s actual market performance.

A more effective investment strategy is to spread purchases over time. This approach not only minimizes the impact of small price fluctuations but also ensures a more stable average buying price for Bitcoin.