Ex-Bank Of Japan Board Member Expects No Further Rate Increases in 2024

Per a former BOJ official, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is probably going to wait until next year to raise interest rates again. The central bank has made it clear through this action that it prefers short-term market stability.

Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai shared his insights on Friday, suggesting that the central bank will refrain from additional rate increases for the remainder of this year. “They won’t be able to hike again, at least for the rest of the year,” Sakurai told Bloomberg. He further speculated, “It’s a toss up whether they can do one hike by next March.”

The BOJ increased its benchmark interest rate from zero to roughly 0.25% on July 31, which was the first hike in more than a decade. The goal of this policy change was to abandon the long-standing zero interest rate approach. The result was an instantaneous increase in the value of the Japanese yen and the unwinding of the “risk-on” yen carry transactions. Due to this shift in the market, traditional risk assets saw a sharp decline, which caused Bitcoin’s value to fall from roughly $65,000 to $50,000 in just one week.

Bitcoin Recovery and BOJ’s Evolving Stance

Despite this upheaval, Bitcoin has managed to recover and is currently trading above $58,000, reflecting signs of a risk reset on Wall Street. In response to the market turmoil, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida has adjusted the bank’s previously hawkish stance. Uchida acknowledged that the BOJ would avoid further rate hikes during periods of market instability. “Uchida’s remarks were appropriate because market stabilization is very important now,” Sakurai commented.

Sakurai also highlighted a communication issue with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. He noted, “The BOJ is moving from excessive monetary easing to appropriate monetary easing, and the biggest problem is that Ueda failed to communicate firmly they will maintain easing.” This failure to clearly communicate their intentions has been a persistent issue.

The BOJ’s cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to balance monetary policy with market stability, aiming to mitigate further volatility while transitioning away from its ultra-loose monetary policies.