Here’s why the GLD ETF is surging and what to expect

(Originally posted on : Invezz )

Gold price extended its gains to hit a fresh all-time high on Wednesday at $2,878.68 before pulling back to $2,860.05 at the time of this publication. The precious metal is trading in the green for the six consecutive week as investors remain apprehensive over President Trump’s policies. The latest trigger is China’s retaliatory measure to Trump’s tariffs; an aspect that has heighntened the demand for safe-haven assets. 

As the bullion rallies, major gold ETFs have recorded significant gains. At the time of writing, SPDR Gold Trust EFT (GLD) was at $264.13, having surged by about 8% since the beginning of 2025.

Global gold demand hits record high in Q4’24 and FY24

As a conventional safe haven, gold price has found support in the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. In fact, in the World Gold Council (WGC) annual report released on 5th February, these uncertainties largely contributed to the bullion’s demand reaching a record high in 2024. 

The global head of central banks at WGC, Shaokai Fan noted, “In 2024, global gold demand surged to a new quarterly high and a record annual total bolstered by heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties”.  

The total transactions in 2024, including over-the-counter investments, were at 4,974 tonnes compared to 4,899 tonnes in the previous year. Besides, overall investment in the precious metal surged by 25% on a year-over-year basis, reaching a 4-year high at 1,180 tonnes. 

WGC notes that this surge was largely bolstered by gold ETFs. China and India also recorded strong demand for physical gold bars and coins. OTC investments were also steady as high netw-worth sort for a hedge against the prolonged economic and geopolitical risks. 

Besides, central banks’ appetite for the asset remained “insatiable” with purchases from the institutions exceeding 1,000 tonnes for the third year in a row. The National Bank of Poland and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey topped the list by adding 90 tonnes and 75 tonne to their gold reserves respectively. The Reserve Bank of India came in third; making monthly purchases consistently except for December. 

In the report, the council’s senior markets analysts, Louise Street forecasts, “In 2025, we expect central banks to remain in the driving seat and gold ETF investors to join the fray, especially if we see lower, albeit volatile interest rates”. 

GLD ETF to find support in the increased demand for safe-haven assets 

On a broader scale, SPDR Gold Shares will find support in the steady investment demand expected to shape the gold market in 2025. At the same time, the high appetite for safe haven assets is set to bolster the gold ETF in the short term.

At the moment, the market’s participants are concerned over the looming US-China trade war after Beijing announced an array of retaliatory measures to Trump’s tariffs. Interestingly, the US President appears not to be in a hurry to reach a mutually beneficial deal with President Xi Jinping. 

An escalation of the trade war may have Trump make true his prior promise of imposing tariffs of upto 60% on Chinese goods; a move that would catapult GLD ETF and the broader gold market to new heights. 

On the flip side, the market’s participants are concerned that Trump’s policies will be inflationary; pushing the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer. In such an environment, the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion tends to be higher. That would curb SPDR Gold Shares gains as the Treasury yields surge.

GLD ETF stock price analysis

GLD stock by TradingView

The daily chart reveals that the GLD ETF stock has been in a strong bull run. It recently moved above the key resistance level at $257, its highest level in October last year. 

The fund has moved above the upper side of the bullish pennant pattern, a popular bullish sign. GLD has remained above all moving averages. Therefore, the fund will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance at $300. 

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