Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Set for First Debate as Betting Markets Surge

The second debate of the 2024 election cycle is set for September 10, bringing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump head-to-head for the first time. With tensions high and both candidates vying for voter support, this debate could prove decisive as Election Day approaches.

This debate follows Trump’s strong performance against President Joe Biden in June, which raised concerns among Democratic leaders about Biden’s chances in the upcoming election. Under pressure from party figures like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, Biden decided to step down from the race in July, paving the way for Harris to secure the Democratic nomination.

Airing live at 9 p.m. EST from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, the debate will be moderated by ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis. Despite Trump’s presence in the race, Harris holds a narrow lead of 0.6 points in recent polls. For both candidates, this debate presents a crucial opportunity to sway undecided voters.

Betting markets like Polymarket, where users place bets with USDC (a digital currency), predict Harris will come out on top. According to the platform, there is a 75% chance that pollsters like Ipsos and FiveThirtyEight will declare Harris the winner. However, bettors remain skeptical about a significant shift in the polls, assigning just a 22% chance that Harris will experience a noticeable boost following the debate.

Predicting Debate Themes; Legal Troubles, Immigration, and Economic Issues

Bettors are also speculating on the debate’s key talking points. Harris is expected to highlight Trump’s legal challenges and focus on social issues like abortion. Trump, on the other hand, is likely to attack Harris on her immigration policies, labeling her the “border czar,” while reiterating familiar themes about “fake news” and China. Whether Trump will use the phrase “Comrade Kamala,” a nickname tying Harris to communist ideas, remains a point of contention among bettors.

While betting on U.S. elections is illegal in most states, UK bookmakers currently favor Trump with 4/5 (-125) odds, giving him a 55.56% chance of winning the general election. Meanwhile, Harris holds 11/10 (+110) odds. Polymarket odds also show a close race, with Trump holding a slight lead at 52% compared to Harris’ 46%.

As millions prepare to tune in, the debate is shaping up to be one of the defining moments of the 2024 presidential race.