Polymarket Launches Bitcoin Reserve Market After Bukele Tease

El Salvador’s Bitcoin “experiment” continues to capture global attention, and lately even prediction markets are turning it into a wager. Traders are betting on whether the country’s crypto reserves could cross the billion-dollar mark by the end of 2025.

Good to Know

• Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are offering bets on El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserves hitting $1 billion.
• President Nayib Bukele’s cryptic post on X briefly shifted betting odds.
• El Salvador officially holds 6,282 BTC, worth about $709 million today.

On Kalshi, traders recently pushed the probability of El Salvador’s Bitcoin reserves topping $1 billion before November 2025 up to 38%, up from just 20% weeks earlier. After President Nayib Bukele jumped on X with the cryptic remark, “I could do the funniest thing right now,” the odds slipped back to 27%. For wagers tied to December 2025, the number has hovered near 35%.

Polymarket, Kalshi’s main rival, quickly followed with its own version of the bet. There, traders are currently pricing the likelihood at 43% that the country’s holdings cross the milestone by year-end 2025. Interestingly, Kalshi had offered the market since mid-August, while Polymarket only introduced it after Bukele’s post went viral.

Behind the trading activity lies an ongoing debate over El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy. In July, finance minister Jerson Rogelio Posada Molina and central bank chief Douglas Pablo Rodríguez Fuentes told the IMF that no new purchases were being made. That commitment was part of negotiations around a $1.4 billion loan package.

Still, Bukele and the official Bitcoin Office have continued to announce fresh buys throughout recent months. At last count, El Salvador holds 6,282 BTC, valued at roughly $709 million. The gap between those figures and the prediction market optimism shows how sentiment can diverge from policy statements.

Meanwhile, the popularity of these wagers reflects the rapid growth of prediction platforms themselves. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are expanding, and just this summer, former executive Toni Gemayel revealed his new project, Clearing Company, raised $15 million in funding led by Coinbase Ventures.

For Bukele, who has tied much of his global image to Bitcoin, the $1 billion question may turn into more than a meme. If BTC prices continue to climb, the prediction markets may prove prescient — but for now, the odds keep moving as fast as Bukele’s posts.