Raoul Pal’s Forecast for 4 Billion Crypto Adopters

In a recent analysis, former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal unveils a compelling forecast for the future of cryptocurrency adoption, suggesting a monumental surge in user numbers. Pal, now CEO of Real Vision, relies on a chart that has proven remarkably accurate over the last five years to underpin his projections.

Pal’s projections stem from a comparison between the early adoption phases of the internet and the burgeoning growth of cryptocurrencies since 2016. He highlights the exponential growth rate of crypto adoption, contrasting it with the trajectory of internet usage during its nascent years.

“The internet, which was the fastest adoption of technology the world had ever seen, it grew by 76% per year and then slowed down after year eight to 43% a year. Crypto has been growing at 137% a year.”

This stark comparison reveals that crypto, currently boasting 516 million users, has outpaced the internet, which had 187 million users at a similar stage of development.

Exponential Expansion Ahead

Pal’s forecast foresees the crypto user base surpassing one billion by the conclusion of 2025, a milestone that signifies a profound shift in global financial paradigms. He attributes this anticipated growth to crypto’s persistent momentum and disruptive potential.

“I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think it will be faster, but by the end of 2025, we get to 1.1 billion users.”

Looking further into the future, Pal envisions an even more staggering adoption rate. Drawing parallels with internet adoption trends, he envisions a scenario where half of the world’s population embraces cryptocurrencies by 2030.

“If we look out further using the internet adoption growth and we slow down the trend rate of growth of crypto to the same as the internet going forward, we get to four billion users by 2030. That’s half the world’s population.”

Pal acknowledges the possibility of unforeseen obstacles but maintains confidence in the reliability of his projections, which have remained remarkably accurate over the years.

“Now will this be perfect? It’s been pretty perfect so far, and I’ve been showing this chart for five years now. But let’s assume not. Either way, these numbers are simply staggering.”