Why $40K May Be Bitcoin’s Lowest Point Moving Forward
(Originally posted on : Crypto News – iGaming.org )
In a recent video analysis on his YouTube channel, Plan B, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, shared his monthly insights on Bitcoin’s performance and its future trajectory. Here’s a summary of his analysis, interspersed with quotes to highlight his key points.
Bitcoin is above all those realized prices… that might mean that Bitcoin will not go below 40K ever again.
Plan B started with an update on the S2F chart, noting that Bitcoin closed the month at $42,000, consistent with the previous month, and still below the S2F line which predicts a value between $50,000 and $60,000. “We’re still a little bit below the stock-to-flow line… that’s still 20, 30, 40% up to reach that line,” he remarked. With the halving approaching in April, he expressed optimism for Bitcoin’s price to align with the S2F model predictions, as it has in the past cycles.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Discussing the RSI, Plan B noted it remained at 62, similar to last month. He emphasized the historical uptrend seen in the last three months before a halving, suggesting a potential increase. Reinforcing the anticipation of a positive movement toward the halving, he explained:
“Everything above 50 indicates an uptrend… chances are high that we’re just slowly crawling up,”
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The analysis then moved to the 200-week moving average, with Bitcoin’s price at $42,000 outpacing the average at $31,000. Plan B suggested this divergence indicates a bullish outlook, potentially setting $31,000 as the floor price. “It could mean… we will not drop below 31k again,” he posited, highlighting the rising trend of the moving average as a signal of increasing support levels.
Bitcoin in Profit
Plan B highlighted that 90% of all Bitcoin is currently in profit, the highest since the all-time high in October 2021. This statistic underlines the market’s strength, with most investors seeing positive returns except those who bought in 2021. Ssuggesting a solid market condition that precedes new highs, he noted:
“Only the 2021 buyers here are in loss; everybody else is in profit,”
Discussing Bitcoin’s realized prices, Plan B pointed out that Bitcoin is above all key realized price metrics, indicating a bullish signal. “Bitcoin is above all those realized prices… that might mean that Bitcoin will not go below 40K ever again,” he theorized, underlining the strength of the current price level above these metrics.
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Realized Return and Market Cycles
Lastly, he touched on the realized return, observing that coins sold last month were at a profit, indicating a healthy market ready for a bull run. “Sellers are taking profit; they’re not cutting losses,” he mentioned, suggesting the buildup to a bull market. Regarding market cycles, Plan B hinted at the anticipation of the next phase post-halving, with expectations set for a new all-time high potentially within six months after the halving.
Concluding his analysis, Plan B called for viewers to subscribe and stay tuned for further updates, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s journey towards and beyond the next halving. Aligned with historical patterns of post-halving price actions, the analyst claimed:
“I would expect to see the next Red Dot in 3 to six months from here,” referring to the start of a new bull-market, something he is being asked for all the time by his followers on X and elsewhere.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is moving hands at $43,099.43 according to CoinMarketCap data.