{"id":40943,"date":"2024-11-07T17:13:51","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T17:13:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-france-after-trader-made-50m-on-trumps-win\/"},"modified":"2024-11-07T17:13:51","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T17:13:51","slug":"polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-france-after-trader-made-50m-on-trumps-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-france-after-trader-made-50m-on-trumps-win\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket under scrutiny in France after trader made $50M on Trump&#8217;s win"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : CoinJournal: Latest Crypto News, Altcoin News and Cryptocurrency Comparison )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-site=\"CoinJournal\">\n<div class=\"post-article-image  -mt-24  mb-8  lg:-mt-32  rounded  overflow-hidden\" data-site=\"CoinJournal\">\n<picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/imagecache\/2024\/11\/Polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-France-smartcrop-750x375.webp\" type=\"image\/webp\" media=\"(min-width: 750px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/imagecache\/2024\/11\/Polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-France-smartcrop-363x181.webp\" type=\"image\/webp\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/imagecache\/2024\/11\/Polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-France-smartcrop-750x375.jpg\" type=\"image\/jpeg\" media=\"(min-width: 750px)\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/imagecache\/2024\/11\/Polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-France-smartcrop-363x181.jpg\" type=\"image\/jpeg\"\/>\n<\/picture>                    <\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>A French Trader \u201cTh\u00e9o\u201d made nearly $50M betting on Trump using the \u201cneighbour polling\u201d method on Polymarket.<\/li>\n<li>Th\u00e9o\u2019s private polls and unconventional data use raise transparency concerns.<\/li>\n<li>French regulator ANJ is investigating Polymarket\u2019s compliance with gambling laws.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The crypto betting platform Polymarket is facing potential regulatory action in France after an anonymous trader, known as \u201cTh\u00e9o\u201d or the \u201cTrump Whale,\u201d made headlines by netting nearly $50 million wagering on Donald Trump\u2019s victory in the US presidential election.<\/p>\n<p>Th\u00e9o\u2019s remarkable success has raised questions about prediction market methodologies, data reliability, and the transparency of such platforms.<\/p>\n<h2>How Th\u00e9o made approx. $50M wagering on the US presidential election<\/h2>\n<p>Th\u00e9o, a former bank trader from France, used four anonymous Polymarket accounts to place more than $30 million in bets on Trump winning the popular vote. His strategy, as disclosed in an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/finance\/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d\">interview<\/a> with The Wall Street Journal, revolved around what he termed the \u201cneighbour polling\u201d method.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike traditional polling that directly asks individuals who they would vote for, this technique asks respondents who they believe their neighbours support. This approach can reveal hidden preferences, especially when voters may be reluctant to disclose their true choices.<\/p>\n<p>Publicly released neighbour polls conducted in September, which Th\u00e9o cited, showed that support for Vice President Kamala Harris was significantly lower when respondents were asked about their neighbours\u2019 preferences compared to direct questioning.<\/p>\n<p>Th\u00e9o viewed this as an indication that conventional polling underestimated Trump\u2019s support, leading him to make a high-risk bet when Polymarket odds suggested only a 40% chance of Trump winning the popular vote.<\/p>\n<p>To bolster his confidence, Th\u00e9o commissioned private surveys with a major pollster, which reportedly yielded \u201cmind-blowing\u201d results favouring Trump. However, these findings were kept private due to a confidentiality agreement, fueling speculation about the accuracy and impact of such data on prediction markets.<\/p>\n<h2>Autorit\u00e9 Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) investigating Polymarket<\/h2>\n<p>The success of Th\u00e9o\u2019s wager has drawn increased attention to Polymarket\u2019s role in election betting. French authorities, particularly the Autorit\u00e9 Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), are <a href=\"https:\/\/en.thebigwhale.io\/article-en\/exclusive-france-to-ban-polymarket\">reportedly<\/a> scrutinizing the platform\u2019s compliance with local gambling laws.<\/p>\n<p>Although Polymarket operates from the US, it only permits non-US users to participate following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The ease with which VPNs can bypass geographic restrictions adds to the regulatory challenge.<\/p>\n<p>Experts are divided on the efficacy of neighbour polling. While the method has sometimes outperformed conventional surveys, studies indicate that it can also lead to misleading predictions, especially when the public lacks sufficient context or understanding.<\/p>\n<p>Th\u00e9o\u2019s story exemplifies how unconventional strategies and private insights can disrupt markets, yet underscores the need for transparency and regulation as the landscape of prediction markets evolves.<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-meta\">\n<hr class=\"mb-6\"\/>\n<h6 class=\"text-3xl  mb-4  text-green-300\">Share this article<\/h6>\n<hr class=\"mb-6\"\/>\n<h6 class=\"text-3xl  mb-4  text-green-300\">Categories<\/h6>\n<hr class=\"mb-6\"\/>\n<h6 class=\"text-3xl  mb-4  text-green-300\">Tags<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/coinjournal.net\/news\/polymarket-under-scrutiny-in-france-after-trader-made-50m-on-trumps-win\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : CoinJournal: Latest Crypto News, Altcoin News and Cryptocurrency Comparison ) A French Trader \u201cTh\u00e9o\u201d made nearly $50M betting on Trump using the \u201cneighbour polling\u201d method on Polymarket. Th\u00e9o\u2019s private polls and unconventional data use raise transparency concerns. French regulator ANJ is investigating Polymarket\u2019s compliance with gambling laws. The crypto betting platform [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":40944,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40943"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40943\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40944"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}