{"id":64407,"date":"2025-12-10T09:20:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T09:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bank-analysts-say-halving-cycle-no-longer-dominant-in-btc-pricing\/"},"modified":"2025-12-10T09:20:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T09:20:05","slug":"bank-analysts-say-halving-cycle-no-longer-dominant-in-btc-pricing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bank-analysts-say-halving-cycle-no-longer-dominant-in-btc-pricing\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank Analysts Say Halving Cycle No Longer Dominant in BTC Pricing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Crypto News &#8211; iGaming.org )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Standard Chartered has issued a revised outlook for <a href=\"https:\/\/igaming.org\/cryptocurrencies\/bitcoin\/\">bitcoin<\/a>, signaling a shift in how the bank interprets long-used cycle indicators and the role of ETF-related demand. Analysts outlined a new framework that lowers long-term price expectations while reshaping assumptions about market behavior.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><em><strong>Good to Know<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em><strong>The bank says ETF demand weakens the halving cycle influence.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><strong>BTC price projections through 2028 have been sharply reduced.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><strong>Analysts expect the all-time high to be broken in the first half of 2026.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>Bank Analysis Points to ETF Influence Surpassing Historical Halving Patterns<\/h2>\n<p>In a note shared online by Vaneck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered analysts argued that past halving-based models no longer capture the main forces guiding the market. They pointed to ETF flows as a stronger variable, shifting bitcoin price behavior away from the familiar pattern of peaks roughly 18 months after each halving.<\/p>\n<p>The analysts explained that the historical cycle logic functioned only in environments where US-listed ETFs did not exist. According to the bank, ETF participation introduces a steady layer of demand that reduces the halving event impact. Analysts expect a new all-time high above the current $126,000 record from October 6, 2025 to confirm the structural change, with that break anticipated during the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Sigel highlighted the analysis on social media platform X, noting how institutional research groups are beginning to revisit long-standing assumptions underpinning bitcoin cycle studies.<\/p>\n<div class=\"main-org-3-item-ins box-100 relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-items box-100 relative\">\n<div class=\"box-100 space-org-3-item relative border-tb mt-1 \">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-item-ins box-100 relative\">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-item-terms box-25 relative\">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-item-terms-ins box-100 text-center relative\"> <strong>177% up to 5BTC + 77 <strong> Free Spins<\/strong>!<\/strong> <\/p>\n<p>New players only. Exclusive Welcome Bonus of 177% + 77 Free Spins <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Standard Chartered Cuts Multiyear Bitcoin Targets<\/h2>\n<p>The updated outlook includes a reduced set of price projections across several years. The bank now places its 2025 forecast at $100,000, down from an earlier figure of $200,000. Projections for 2026 have been lowered to $150,000 from $300,000. The 2027 target was adjusted to $225,000 from $400,000, while the 2028 figure moved from $500,000 to $300,000.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts say the reductions reflect new expectations tied to liquidity, ETF-driven flows, and changes in participation from regulated investment vehicles. Even so, broader commentary within the report maintains a constructive view on the long-term path for bitcoin adoption. Institutional inflows and the maturing role of exchange-traded products are seen as part of the evolving structure of the market, even as near-term caution remains present.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<h2>FAQ<\/h2>\n<h3>Why does Standard Chartered believe the halving cycle is less relevant now?<\/h3>\n<p>Analysts say ETF participation introduces a steadier demand pattern that weakens the historical link between halving events and price peaks.<\/p>\n<h3>What is the bank timeline for a new all-time high?<\/h3>\n<p>They expect bitcoin to move above the $126,000 record sometime in the first half of 2026.<\/p>\n<div class=\"main-org-3-item-ins box-100 relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-items box-100 relative\">\n<div class=\"box-100 space-org-3-item relative border-tb mt-1 \">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-item-ins box-100 relative\">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-item-terms box-25 relative\">\n<div class=\"space-org-3-item-terms-ins box-100 text-center relative\"> <strong><strong>Get 125% \/ $2,500 on 1st deposit!<\/strong><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p>New players only. Exclusive Welcome Bonus of up to $2,500<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>How much were long-term forecasts reduced?<\/h3>\n<p>Targets through 2028 were cut substantially, with reductions ranging from 40 percent to nearly 50 percent depending on the year.<\/p>\n<h3>Does the bank remain positive on bitcoin long term?<\/h3>\n<p>Yes. The analysis notes that institutional adoption and ETF usage continue to support bitcoin structural trajectory.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/igaming.org\/crypto\/standard-chartered-cuts-bitcoin-forecasts-and-rethinks-halving-impact\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Crypto News &#8211; iGaming.org ) Standard Chartered has issued a revised outlook for bitcoin, signaling a shift in how the bank interprets long-used cycle indicators and the role of ETF-related demand. Analysts outlined a new framework that lowers long-term price expectations while reshaping assumptions about market behavior. Good to Know The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":64408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64407"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64407\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64408"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}