{"id":64575,"date":"2025-12-12T18:12:06","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T18:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/iea-cuts-oil-surplus-forecast-as-demand-growth-outlook-raised\/"},"modified":"2025-12-12T18:12:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T18:12:06","slug":"iea-cuts-oil-surplus-forecast-as-demand-growth-outlook-raised","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/iea-cuts-oil-surplus-forecast-as-demand-growth-outlook-raised\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA cuts oil surplus forecast as demand growth outlook raised"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Russia News, Latest Stories &amp; Analysis | Invezz )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The projected global crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 has narrowed due to a halt in production, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 has been scaled up by the IEA in its December Oil Market Report.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Paris-based agency\u2019s December estimate suggests a reduced global oil surplus compared to its November report. <\/p>\n<p>It now projects oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, a decrease from the 4.09 million bpd surplus previously estimated.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"higher-oil-demand-weaker-surplus\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Higher oil demand, weaker surplus <\/h2>\n<p><a class=\"copy-link-to-section\" href=\"#\"><i class=\"fa fa-link\"\/><br \/>\n                <span class=\"tooltip\" data-text=\"Copy link to section\" data-conf=\"Copied!\">Copy link to section<\/span><br \/>\n            <\/a><\/p>\n<p>The IEA has increased its global oil demand growth projections for both the current and next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This revision is attributed to an improved global economic outlook and the fact that \u201canxiety about tariffs having largely subsided.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, the IEA anticipates a slight decrease in supply growth for 2025-2026 compared to earlier forecasts. <\/p>\n<p>This expected slowdown is due to sanctions imposed on Russia and Venezuela impacting their oil exports.<\/p>\n<p>The agency also foresees a continuing trend of \u201cparallel markets\u201d for some time.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This situation involves an abundant crude oil supply existing simultaneously with tight fuel markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The persistence of this dynamic is linked to limited spare refining capacity outside of China and the impact of new EU sanctions on Russian crude-derived fuel exports.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"bright-demand-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bright demand outlook<\/h2>\n<p><a class=\"copy-link-to-section\" href=\"#\"><i class=\"fa fa-link\"\/><br \/>\n                <span class=\"tooltip\" data-text=\"Copy link to section\" data-conf=\"Copied!\">Copy link to section<\/span><br \/>\n            <\/a><\/p>\n<p>IEA forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 830,000 bpd in 2025 and by 860,000 bpd next year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The agency said:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote inv-component-break-container is-layout-flow wp-block-quote inv-component-break-container-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>Recent strength in US gas liquids demand has been largely offset by persistent weakness in Europe and accelerated substitution away from oil in power generation in the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This year\u2019s gains are primarily driven by gasoil and jet\/kerosene, which together account for half of the total increase, the agency said.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, fuel oil is seeing reduced demand due to competition from natural gas and solar energy in power generation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead to 2026, petrochemical feedstocks are projected to become the dominant growth sector, with their share of growth expected to rise significantly from 40% in 2025 to over 60%, it said.<\/p>\n<p>According to the IEA, economic confidence has been restored, thanks to a series of successful US trade agreements. <\/p>\n<p>This follows a period earlier in the year when consumption was negatively impacted by tensions related to tariffs.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"sanctions-hit-supply\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sanctions hit supply<\/h2>\n<p><a class=\"copy-link-to-section\" href=\"#\"><i class=\"fa fa-link\"\/><br \/>\n                <span class=\"tooltip\" data-text=\"Copy link to section\" data-conf=\"Copied!\">Copy link to section<\/span><br \/>\n            <\/a><\/p>\n<p>The IEA has revised its forecast for global oil supply growth next year, now expecting a rise of 2.4 million bpd, a slight decrease from its previous prediction of 2.5 million bpd.<\/p>\n<p>Due to disruptions caused by sanctions, the IEA has lowered its projected output figures for OPEC+ producers for both 2025 and 2026.<\/p>\n<p>According to the IEA, global oil supply dropped by 610,000 bpd in November compared to the previous month. <\/p>\n<p>This decline was attributed to reduced output from Russia and Venezuela, both of which are facing sanctions.<\/p>\n<p>The IEA reported that Russian export revenues reached their lowest point in November since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>Conversely, the IEA maintained its stable forecasts for non-OPEC+ output for both the current and next year, citing increased production primarily in the Americas, specifically the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/invezz.com\/news\/2025\/12\/11\/iea-cuts-oil-surplus-forecast-as-demand-growth-outlook-raised\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Russia News, Latest Stories &amp; Analysis | Invezz ) The projected global crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 has narrowed due to a halt in production, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 has been scaled up [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362381,"featured_media":64576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[37],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64575"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362381"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64575\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}