{"id":67149,"date":"2026-01-28T08:31:37","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T08:31:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/russian-wheat-exports-set-for-record-year-sovecon-lifts-2025-26-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-01-28T08:31:37","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T08:31:37","slug":"russian-wheat-exports-set-for-record-year-sovecon-lifts-2025-26-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/russian-wheat-exports-set-for-record-year-sovecon-lifts-2025-26-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Russian wheat exports set for record year; SovEcon lifts 2025-26 outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Originally posted on : USD News, Latest Stories & Analysis | Invezz )<\/b>
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SovEcon, a prominent agricultural consultancy, has substantially increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports for the 2025-26 marketing season.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The projection has been raised by a significant 1.1 million metric tons (mmt), bringing the total expected exports to 45.7 mmt.<\/p>\n

This revised figure represents a notable acceleration in Russia\u2019s position as a major global wheat supplier.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The new forecast of 45.7 mmt is considerably higher than the 40.8 mmt exported in the preceding 2024-25 season. <\/p>\n

Furthermore, it comfortably surpasses the five-year average export volume of 42.2 mmt, underscoring a potential shift toward a consistently higher export baseline.<\/p>\n

Record-setting outlook<\/h2>\n


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The decision to revise the forecast upwards is primarily driven by two key factors observed in the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Firstly, there has been a demonstration of remarkably strong export activity over recent months, indicating robust demand and efficient logistical operations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Secondly, the revision is supported by relatively high official crop figures released by government agencies, suggesting a larger-than-anticipated harvest and ample supply for the export market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This combination of strong market performance and favourable official supply data has prompted SovEcon to adjust its outlook to reflect this heightened export potential for the 2025-26 season.<\/p>\n

Recent export surge and global drivers<\/h2>\n


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Russian wheat exports have surged dramatically in recent months, setting notable benchmarks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

December saw a sharp increase in shipments, totalling 4.2 mmt, which marks the highest volume for that month in the last eight years, according to the consultancy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This followed an even more impressive performance in November, when Russian wheat shipments reached a record-breaking 5.2 mmt for the month.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This substantial rise in export volumes underscores Russia\u2019s dominant and growing position in the global wheat market, likely driven by a large domestic harvest and competitive pricing, impacting international commodity flows and prices.<\/p>\n

Strong demand from major importers is expected to keep shipments relatively high in the coming months.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Recent purchases include Egypt\u2019s Mostakbal Misr buying 0.7 mmt of wheat in late December, with a significant portion likely to come from Russia.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additionally, Saudi Arabia\u2019s GFSA made its largest purchase since February 2024, acquiring 0.9 mmt in mid-January, which included grain sourced from the Black Sea region.<\/p>\n

The forecast for Russian wheat exports was revised upward, due in part to a relatively high supply.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Preliminary data from Rosstat, released in December, put the 2025 wheat harvest at 91.4 mmt, exceeding most market estimates, which ranged from 88.0 to 89.0 mmt, SovEcon said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Anticipating a decline<\/h2>\n


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For comparison, SovEcon\u2019s December estimate for 2025 wheat production was 88.8 mmt.<\/p>\n

\u201cA 20 mmt export quota for major grains will take effect in mid-February, but in our view it will not materially affect shipments,\u201d the consultancy said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Wheat exports during the quota period from mid-February through July are estimated at about 16 mmt.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

For the 2026-27 season, the initial wheat export forecast is 39.6 mmt, marking a 6.1 mmt reduction from the current season\u2019s estimate.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This expected decline in shipments is attributed to tighter supply, following a relatively small harvest. SovEcon projects the 2026 wheat production at 83.8 mmt.<\/p>\n

The anticipated domestic consumption for the upcoming season is projected to stay the same, attributed to a stagnant, zero-growth rate in livestock.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the coming months, we expect some increase in export shipments. However, we do not anticipate a significant acceleration in exports, given that a large share of stocks is located far from export regions,\u201d Andrey Sizov, managing director at SovEcon said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Additional limiting factors include a strong ruble and stable export prices.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote><\/div>\n

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(Originally posted on : USD News, Latest Stories & Analysis | Invezz ) SovEcon, a prominent agricultural consultancy, has substantially increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports for the 2025-26 marketing season.\u00a0 The projection has been raised by a significant 1.1 million metric tons (mmt), bringing the total expected exports to 45.7 mmt. This revised […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362381,"featured_media":67150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67149"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362381"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67149"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67149\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}