{"id":71347,"date":"2026-04-19T03:05:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T03:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/arthur-hayes-warns-bitcoin-may-stall-until-liquidity-returns\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T03:05:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T03:05:23","slug":"arthur-hayes-warns-bitcoin-may-stall-until-liquidity-returns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/arthur-hayes-warns-bitcoin-may-stall-until-liquidity-returns\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Warns Bitcoin May Stall Until Liquidity Returns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Arthur Hayes ties <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s outlook to global <span>liquidity<\/span>, with upside dependent on policy-driven <span>liquidity<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li>Geopolitics create a <span>bearish<\/span> setup as war risk, deleveraging, and AI-driven stress weigh on markets.<\/li>\n<li> <span>Liquidity<\/span> injections could lift <span>bitcoin<\/span> once credit stress forces intervention.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Outlook Hinges on <span>Liquidity<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Arthur Hayes\u2019 latest market note, titled \u201cNo Trade Zone,\u201d signals that <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s outlook is increasingly tied to global <span>liquidity<\/span> conditions rather than traditional macro indicators. On April 15, the Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO outlined a cautious stance, citing geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence-driven economic risks as key constraints. The essay presents <span>BTC<\/span> as vulnerable in the short term but positioned to respond to future monetary expansion.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes centered his outlook on monetary conditions rather than conventional valuation models. He asked, \u201cDo you believe the quantity or the price of money is more important when valuing <span>bitcoin<\/span>?\u201d He then answered with a direct thesis:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI believe the quantity of money determines the price of <span>bitcoin<\/span>, not its price.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>That view underpins his broader market framework, which expects <span>bitcoin<\/span> to struggle during periods of forced deleveraging, then strengthen when policymakers expand credit. He tied that dynamic to several geopolitical outcomes involving the Strait of Hormuz, as well as to a domestic economic slowdown driven by job losses among white-collar workers. In Hayes\u2019 view, those pressures could hit credit quality, weigh on banks, and delay any durable <span>crypto<\/span> rally until authorities supply fresh <span>liquidity<\/span> to stabilize the system.<\/p>\n<h2>War Risk and Credit Stress Threaten Rally<\/h2>\n<p>That caution appears clearly in one of the essay\u2019s most specific forecasts. \u201c <span>Bitcoin<\/span> might bounce a bit after the situation reverts to the pre-war status quo,\u201d Hayes wrote. \u201cHowever, the AI agentic deflation bomb still ticks below the surface. Until the Fed provides the <span>liquidity<\/span> needed to plug the black hole in banks\u2019 balance sheets caused by consumer credit defaults, <span>bitcoin<\/span> will not meaningfully rise.\u201d He further shared:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThat\u2019s not to say it couldn\u2019t spike to $80,000 to $90,000, but for me putting new units of fiat at risk requires an all-clear from the Fed.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The statement shows that he still sees upside potential, but not before broader financial stress is addressed.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes also warned that market stress could produce another sharp <span>bitcoin<\/span> selloff before any recovery takes hold. \u201cAs investors de-risk their portfolios because of higher <span>volatility<\/span> and lower prices, investors sell <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> to meet margin calls,\u201d he described, adding: \u201cOnly when things get bad enough will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> rise, as expectations of a bailout become the consensus.\u201d In the most extreme scenario, even a liquidity-fueled rally may not last. As Hayes put it: \u201cThe rally in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>, inspired by money printing, might be short-lived because the destruction of the Iranian state materially raises the prospect of WW3.\u201d Taken together, the essay presents a conditional forecast: near-term <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-volatility\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a> remains high, while any lasting upside still depends on crisis-era money creation.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/arthur-hayes-warns-bitcoin-may-stall-until-liquidity-returns\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways: Arthur Hayes ties bitcoin\u2019s outlook to global liquidity, with upside dependent on policy-driven liquidity. Geopolitics create a bearish setup as war risk, deleveraging, and AI-driven stress weigh on markets. Liquidity injections could lift bitcoin once credit stress forces intervention. Bitcoin Outlook Hinges on Liquidity Arthur Hayes\u2019 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":71348,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71347"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71347"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71347\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}