{"id":71377,"date":"2026-04-19T22:24:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T22:24:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/polymarket-traders-give-bitcoin-31-chance-of-hitting-80000-this-month-bitcoin-news\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T22:24:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T22:24:16","slug":"polymarket-traders-give-bitcoin-31-chance-of-hitting-80000-this-month-bitcoin-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/polymarket-traders-give-bitcoin-31-chance-of-hitting-80000-this-month-bitcoin-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket Traders Give Bitcoin 31% Chance of Hitting $80,000 This Month \u2013 Bitcoin News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket shows a 31% chance <span>bitcoin<\/span> hits $80K in April 2026, making it the most active live bracket with $3.7M in <span>volume<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li> <span>Kalshi<\/span> traders give <span>bitcoin<\/span> only an 18% chance of reclaiming $100K before July 2026, with 41% odds before January 2027.<\/li>\n<li>Myriad markets favor a $84K pump at 60.7%, while a $55K dump holds 39.3% probability on Binance spot data.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>A Look at Today\u2019s <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Price Prediction Markets<\/h2>\n<p>As of April 19, 2026, at 4:30 p.m., <a href=\"https:\/\/markets.bitcoin.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> is trading at $74,726. <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/polymarket-newsart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket<\/a>\u2018s April price milestone <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-april-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a> has logged $32.3 million in total <span>trading volume<\/span>, with the $80,000 target drawing the most active attention at 31% odds and $3.7 million in <span>volume<\/span>. Every bracket below $75,000 is effectively locked at certainty. Everything above it is still live and being traded.<\/p>\n<p>The $85,000 target sits at 6% probability with $2 million in <span>volume<\/span>. The $90,000 bracket holds a 2% chance. Beyond that, traders are largely pricing in failure. <span>Bitcoin<\/span> hitting $100,000 this month carries less than 1% odds, and $150,000 within April has attracted more than $6.6 million in total <span>volume<\/span> despite sitting at a fraction of a cent per share. Traders are not buying the moonshot. They are betting against it.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_807468\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-807468\" style=\"width:2018px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-807468\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Polymarket wager on April 19, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On the <span>bearish<\/span> side of the April market, a drop to $65,000 is priced at 13% with $2.4 million in <span>volume<\/span>. A fall to $60,000 carries 3% odds and $1.7 million behind it. The market is not pricing in a collapse, but it is not ignoring the risk either.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s end-of-2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a> tells a different story. With $32.2 million in total <span>volume<\/span>, traders are pricing <span>bitcoin<\/span> tapping $80,000 before December 31 at 81% probability. The odds drop to 56% for $90,000 and fall to 37% for a return to $100,000. Betting on $250,000 by year-end carries 4% odds and has drawn nearly $4.8 million in <span>volume<\/span>. A $1,000,000 <span>bitcoin<\/span> carries 2% odds and just under $1 million in trading interest.<\/p>\n<p>On the downside, 60% of traders in that market believe that <span>bitcoin<\/span> will revisit $55,000 before the year is out. The $45,000 target sits at 36%. A drop to $15,000 carries 6% odds but has accumulated $4.6 million in <span>volume<\/span>, suggesting a meaningful number of traders are paying for cheap disaster insurance.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a>\u2018s $150,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxbtcmax150\/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k\/kxbtcmax150-25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a>, drawing on the CF Benchmarks <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Real-Time Index, shows the broader market is not expecting that milestone soon. The probability of <span>bitcoin<\/span> reaching $150,000 before August 2026 sits at 4%. Before September, it climbs to 5%. Before January 2027, the market gives it 12%. Total series <span>volume<\/span> stands at $32.1 million.<\/p>\n<p> <span>Kalshi<\/span>\u2019s $100,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxbtcmax100\/when-will-bitcoin-hit-100k\/kxbtcmax100-26\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a> is a lot more actionable. Traders give <span>bitcoin<\/span> an 18% chance of crossing that level before July 2026. The odds improve to 30% before October and 41% before the end of the year. Total <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a> on this series is $5.9 million. The market opened in February and resolves using a trimmed mean calculation from the BRTI, excluding outliers from the 1-minute window.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_807469\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-807469\" style=\"width:1920px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-807469 size-full\" title=\"Polymarket Traders Give Bitcoin 31% Chance of Hitting $80,000 This Month\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-19-at-4-46-25-pm_nwmk.png\" alt=\"Polymarket Traders Give Bitcoin 31% Chance of Hitting $80,000 This Month\" width=\"1920\" height=\"930\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-19-at-4-46-25-pm_nwmk-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-19-at-4-46-25-pm_nwmk-1024x496.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-19-at-4-46-25-pm_nwmk-768x372.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-19-at-4-46-25-pm_nwmk-1536x744.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/screenshot-2026-04-19-at-4-46-25-pm_nwmk.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-807469\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a> market on April 19.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/prediction-protocol-myriad-surpasses-100m-trading-volume-reports-10x-growth-in-3-months\/\">Myriad<\/a> offers a simpler framing: $84,000 pump or $55,000 dump, whichever comes first on Binance spot. <a href=\"https:\/\/myriad.markets\/markets\/btc-next-move-pump-to-84k-or-dump-to-55k-3d262902-135d-416e-90bc-8e80233f341e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Current odds<\/a> favor the pump at 60.7%, with the dump scenario at 39.3%. Total <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a> is $125,000. The market uses 1-minute candle close prices on Tradingview and has been live since February 5, 2026.<\/p>\n<p> <!-- --> <\/p>\n<p>These markets show a crowd that expects <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> to recover but is not convinced it happens fast. The most probable near-term move in April is a push toward $80,000. The most probable outcome by year-end is $80,000 cleared, with meaningful doubt above $90,000.<\/p>\n<p>For <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-cme-options-open-interest-stays-put-heavy-as-price-stalls-around-76000\/\">options traders<\/a> watching this data, coinglass.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/options\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">stats<\/a> show call buyers targeting $80,000 are working with roughly a one-in-three probability from the crowd. Put buyers watching $65,000 are working with a 13% consensus risk. In the end-of-year picture, $80,000 calls carry the crowd\u2019s confidence at 81%, while $55,000 puts draw a 60% probability of touching that level at some point before December 31.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/polymarket-traders-give-bitcoin-31-chance-of-hitting-80000-this-month\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways: Polymarket shows a 31% chance bitcoin hits $80K in April 2026, making it the most active live bracket with $3.7M in volume. Kalshi traders give bitcoin only an 18% chance of reclaiming $100K before July 2026, with 41% odds before January 2027. Myriad markets favor a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":71378,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71377"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}