{"id":71618,"date":"2026-04-25T16:57:43","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T16:57:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/ibm-quantum-hardware-cracks-15-bit-ecc-key-but-bitcoin-devs-say-random-bits-match-the-result\/"},"modified":"2026-04-25T16:57:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-25T16:57:43","slug":"ibm-quantum-hardware-cracks-15-bit-ecc-key-but-bitcoin-devs-say-random-bits-match-the-result","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/ibm-quantum-hardware-cracks-15-bit-ecc-key-but-bitcoin-devs-say-random-bits-match-the-result\/","title":{"rendered":"IBM Quantum Hardware Cracks 15-Bit ECC Key, but Bitcoin Devs Say Random Bits Match the Result"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Project Eleven awarded researcher Giancarlo Lelli 1 <span>BTC<\/span> ($78,000) for cracking a 15-bit ECC key on IBM quantum hardware on April 24.<\/li>\n<li> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> developers showed Lelli\u2019s result replicates with random noise, signaling zero quantum advantage over classical methods.<\/li>\n<li>The gap from 15 bits to <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s 256-bit secp256k1 remains a 2^241 engineering chasm, leaving <span>BTC<\/span> security intact for now.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Project Eleven Hands Giancarlo Lelli 1 Btc for 15-Bit ECC Quantum Break, but Software Developers Call It Noise<\/h2>\n<p>Project Eleven <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/project-eleven-awards-1-btc-q-day-prize-for-largest-quantum-attack-on-elliptic-curve-cryptography-to-date-302752439.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">described<\/a> the feat as a 512-fold increase in search-space complexity over a prior 6-bit ECC break completed by engineer Steve Tippeconnic on IBM hardware in September 2025. CEO Alex Pruden framed the achievement as evidence that quantum attacks on ECC no longer require national labs or proprietary hardware.<\/p>\n<p>The prize, valued at roughly $78,000 at the time of award, was designed to offer reproducible public measurements of quantum attacks on ECC for key sizes between 1 and 25 bits. Lelli\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/GiancarloLelli\/quantum\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">submission<\/a>, including full code and execution logs, is publicly available on Github.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_809303\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-809303\" style=\"width:1328px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-809303\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Project Eleven\u2019s X post. Source: X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Lelli implemented a two-register variant of Shor\u2019s algorithm on IBM Quantum cloud hardware, targeting elliptic curves of the form used in <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s secp256k1 standard. The circuit ran across multiple IBM Heron r2 processors, including ibm_torino and ibm_fez, and relied on techniques designed for noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices.<\/p>\n<p> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> developers and cryptographers moved quickly to dismiss the result, contending that the quantum hardware added no meaningful value to the outcome. Project Eleven\u2019s X post <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/projecteleven\/status\/2047661990605156796?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">announcing<\/a> the milestone now carries a Community Notes <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/birdwatch\/n\/2047734901869338699\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fact check<\/a>, stating that the approach used to recover the 15-bit ECC key depends on classical verification of outputs indistinguishable from random noise, effectively amounting to classical guessing.<\/p>\n<p>Former <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Core maintainer Jonas Schnelli analyzed Lelli\u2019s submission and found that the IBM circuit, running roughly 98,000 gates at approximately 99.5% per-gate fidelity, produced outputs statistically indistinguishable from random coin flips.<\/p>\n<p>Schnelli <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/_jonasschnelli_\/status\/2047765986443706547?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">reproduced<\/a> the full key recovery in about 20 lines of Python using pure random bits, with no quantum hardware involved. His conclusion was direct: the quantum computer added no detectable signal over classical randomness.<\/p>\n<p>Coinkite founder, Rodolfo Novak, insisted Project Eleven is misleading the public, calling its quantum claims \u201ctheater.\u201d On X he <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nvk\/status\/2047765245897093539?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">argued<\/a> \u201cthe <span>private key<\/span> is classically solved before the quantum circuit even runs\u201d and that the system \u201cisn\u2019t finding anything \u2014 it\u2019s being told the answer,\u201d adding the results rely on \u201ca classical verify filter.\u201d Novak concluded that while \u201cthe quantum threat to <span>Bitcoin<\/span> is real but distant,\u201d today\u2019s demos are \u201cclassical computations wearing quantum costumes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Researcher Yuval Adam <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/yuvadm\/status\/2047708266205995269?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">confirmed<\/a> the finding independently by swapping Lelli\u2019s IBM quantum backend for \/dev\/urandom, Linux\u2019s classical random number generator, and recovering the target key identically. The 15-bit curve carries a search space of only 32,767 possible <span>private keys<\/span>, small enough that a classical verifier checking candidates against the public key finds a match through near-random sampling at high probability.<\/p>\n<p> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> proponent Jimmy Song <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jimmysong\/status\/2047772935692095754?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">described<\/a> the quantum computer as performing the same function as \/dev\/urandom. The X account TFTC <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TFTC21\/status\/2047720167136977055?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">noted<\/a> in a widely read thread that every public Shor\u2019s algorithm demonstration on ECC to date relies on classical pre-computation that effectively encodes the answer into the circuit before quantum hardware runs.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_809301\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-809301\" style=\"width:1418px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-809301 size-full\" title=\"IBM Quantum Hardware Cracks 15-Bit ECC Key, but Bitcoin Devs Say Random Bits Match the Result\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/xpost_nwmk.png\" alt=\"IBM Quantum Hardware Cracks 15-Bit ECC Key, but Bitcoin Devs Say Random Bits Match the Result\" width=\"1418\" height=\"860\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/xpost_nwmk-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/xpost_nwmk-1024x621.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/xpost_nwmk-768x466.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/xpost_nwmk.png 1418w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1418px) 100vw, 1418px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-809301\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rel_zeta_tech\/status\/2047992004022297060?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Critics<\/a> also pointed to a conflict of interest in the prize structure. Project Eleven, backed by Coinbase Ventures, Castle Island Ventures, Variant, and Balaji Srinivasan, created the prize, judged submissions through three independent physicists, awarded the bounty, and then issued press releases warning that approximately 6.9 million <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BTC<\/a> held in wallets with exposed public keys faced potential long-term risk. The company sells post-quantum cryptography tools.<\/p>\n<h2>Project Eleven Founder Addresses the Criticism<\/h2>\n<p>Pruden acknowledged in a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/apruden08\/status\/2047914287205941622?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">follow-up thread<\/a> that the result was not Q-Day and that NISQ-era experiments routinely depend on classical assistance. He argued the demo still represented incremental, reproducible progress on accessible public hardware and that migration planning for post-quantum cryptography remains a reasonable long-term priority. The Project Eleven executive added:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cBottom line: This is incremental progress in a noisy, early field \u2014 not Q-Day. It highlights why we track resource reductions and why post-quantum migration planning matters for long-term security. Skepticism is healthy; moving goalposts isn\u2019t. Happy to discuss the technical details or share the repo\/judges\u2019 feedback.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The gap between Lelli\u2019s result and any practical threat to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin<\/a> is substantial. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s secp256k1 curve operates at 256-bit security. The distance from 15 bits to 256 bits represents a factor of 2 to the power of 241 in computational difficulty. Even optimistic recent research, including a <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/googles-quantum-advances-bring-bitcoin-security-debate-into-focus\/\">Google paper<\/a> published in April 2026, estimates that breaking 256-bit ECC would require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, a threshold that current quantum hardware falls far short of.<\/p>\n<p>The episode illustrates a tension that has persisted across quantum computing coverage: incremental hardware milestones generate headlines, but the distance between toy-scale demonstrations and production cryptographic systems remains an engineering gap without a near-term solution. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s security model depends on that gap, and developers say it remains intact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/ibm-quantum-hardware-cracks-15-bit-ecc-key-but-bitcoin-devs-say-random-bits-match-the-result\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways: Project Eleven awarded researcher Giancarlo Lelli 1 BTC ($78,000) for cracking a 15-bit ECC key on IBM quantum hardware on April 24. Bitcoin developers showed Lelli\u2019s result replicates with random noise, signaling zero quantum advantage over classical methods. The gap from 15 bits to Bitcoin\u2019s 256-bit [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":71619,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71618"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71618\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71619"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}