{"id":71662,"date":"2026-04-26T17:23:22","date_gmt":"2026-04-26T17:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/federal-reserve-set-to-hold-rates-at-3-75-as-traders-price-99-odds-for-april-29-fomc-bitcoin-news\/"},"modified":"2026-04-26T17:23:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T17:23:22","slug":"federal-reserve-set-to-hold-rates-at-3-75-as-traders-price-99-odds-for-april-29-fomc-bitcoin-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/federal-reserve-set-to-hold-rates-at-3-75-as-traders-price-99-odds-for-april-29-fomc-bitcoin-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC \u2013 Bitcoin News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CME Fedwatch puts a Fed hold at 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, down from a 6.2% hike chance one month ago.<\/li>\n<li>Polymarket traders have put $20.9 million into the 2026 rate cuts market, with 40% pricing in zero cuts this year.<\/li>\n<li> <span>Kalshi<\/span> shows 84% odds the Fed holds in July, as the March 2026 CPI at 3.3% keeps rate cut expectations limited.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Traders Price Fed Hold at 99% for April FOMC as Polymarket and <span>Kalshi<\/span> Signal No Cuts Through Summer<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CME Fedwatch Tool<\/a> shows a 99% probability that the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/analyst-says-federal-reserve-is-ignoring-us-recession-signals-in-2026\/\">Federal Reserve<\/a> will keep its target rate at 350 to 375 basis points when it meets this week on April 29. The remaining 1% reflects a slim chance of a 25-basis-point hike. The probability of a rate cut sits at zero.<\/p>\n<p>That consensus has held firm for at least a week. One month ago, the picture looked slightly different. The hike probability stood at 6.2%, suggesting some traders were hedging against an upside surprise in economic data. That concern has since faded.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_809567\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-809567\" style=\"width:2358px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-809567\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CME Fedwatch tool on April 26, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/polymarket-newsart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket<\/a>\u2018s June FOMC <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-june-825\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a> tells a similar story. Traders there assign a 93% probability to no change in rates at the June 16 to 17 meeting. A 25-basis-point decrease carries 4.5% odds, while a hike comes in at 1.6%. The market has recorded more than $10.5 million in total <span>trading volume<\/span>, with the \u201c50+ bps decrease\u201d bracket alone drawing over $2.8 million despite its sub-1% implied probability.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-july-181\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">July outlook<\/a> on Polymarket reflects a bit more uncertainty, though the dominant view remains unchanged. The \u201cNo change\u201d outcome holds an 85% probability for the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting. A 25-basis-point cut comes in at 10%, a hike at 3.4%, and a larger cut at 2.4%. That market launched March 19, 2026, and has since logged $3.9 million in total <span>volume<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a>\u2018s parallel July <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxfeddecision\/fed-meeting\/kxfeddecision-26jul\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a> lands in the same range. Traders there put an 84% probability on the Fed holding rates at the July 29 meeting. A 25-basis-point cut carries 12% odds, and a hike sits at 4%. Total <span>volume<\/span> on that contract stands at $79,441.<\/p>\n<p>The driver behind the hold consensus is a combination of a March 2026 CPI reading of 3.3% year-over-year and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Those figures have given Fed officials little reason to move in either direction, and traders appear to agree.<\/p>\n<p>The broadest view of 2026 policy comes from Polymarket\u2019s \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market<\/a>, which has generated $20.9 million in <span>trading volume<\/span> since launching in September 2025. As of late April, the leading outcome is zero cuts, priced at 40%. One cut carries 28% odds, and two cuts sit at 16%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_809571\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-809571\" style=\"width:1952px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-809571 size-full\" title=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" width=\"1952\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk-300x138.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk-1024x470.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk-768x353.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk-1536x705.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/pol_nwmk.png 1952w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1952px) 100vw, 1952px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-809571\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Polymarket on April 26, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a>\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxratecutcount\/number-of-rate-cuts\/kxratecutcount-26dec31\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">equivalent market<\/a> echoes that positioning. Exactly zero cuts leads with a 39.9% probability, followed by one cut at 27.5% and two cuts at 15.8%. Total <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a> on that market has reached $3.18 million.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_809572\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-809572\" style=\"width:1890px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-809572 size-full\" title=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC\" width=\"1890\" height=\"1050\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk-768x427.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk-1536x853.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk-190x107.png 190w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/kal_nwmk.png 1890w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1890px) 100vw, 1890px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-809572\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a> on April 26, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Both platforms resolve their annual cut markets using the same framework. Each 25-basis-point reduction counts as one cut. A 50-basis-point move counts as two. Emergency cuts outside of scheduled meetings are included. <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a> closes its market Dec. 31, 2026, with payouts projected for Jan. 1, 2027.<\/p>\n<p>Traders will next watch the April jobs report and updated CPI data for any signs that the calculus is shifting. Until those numbers arrive, the market\u2019s working assumption is that the Fed stays put.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/federal-reserve-set-to-hold-rates-at-3-75-as-traders-price-99-odds-for-april-29-fomc\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways: CME Fedwatch puts a Fed hold at 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, down from a 6.2% hike chance one month ago. Polymarket traders have put $20.9 million into the 2026 rate cuts market, with 40% pricing in zero cuts this year. Kalshi shows 84% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":71663,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71662"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71662"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71662\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71663"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71662"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71662"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71662"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}