{"id":72334,"date":"2026-05-11T04:21:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T04:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/ex-goldman-strategist-predicts-a-massive-breakout-for-the-brazilian-real\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T04:21:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T04:21:00","slug":"ex-goldman-strategist-predicts-a-massive-breakout-for-the-brazilian-real","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/ex-goldman-strategist-predicts-a-massive-breakout-for-the-brazilian-real\/","title":{"rendered":"Ex-Goldman Strategist Predicts a Massive Breakout for the Brazilian Real"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Driven by US-Iran tensions, Robin Brooks notes the undervalued Brazilian real will next surge past 4.5.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">As Hormuz Strait unrest boosts Brazil\u2019s exports, the market may next see a 20% real rally mirroring 2022.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Upcoming elections between Lula da Silva and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro may disrupt the real\u2019s run to 4.5.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>\u2018A Perfect Storm\u2019 For The Brazilian Real Approaches<\/h2>\n<p>The Brazilian real has become a true outlier since hostilities in the Middle East began, becoming the best-performing currency in emerging markets, besides the Hungarian forint.<\/p>\n<p>Nonetheless, even with its recent rise, analysts believe that the real rally still has legs and that a so-called perfect storm to prop up the currency\u2019s value is brewing.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Robin Brooks, Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution and former Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs, predicts that the real \u201chas a lot further to go,\u201d and will overcome the 4.5 real per dollar exchange rate, which he considers the currency\u2019s \u201cfair value\u201d exchange rate<\/p>\n<p>Brooks states that the Brazilian real is <strong>\u201chorribly beaten down and undervalued\u201d<\/strong> and is poised to benefit from geopolitical drivers similar to those experienced when Russia invaded Ukraine. At the time, the Brent oil benchmark scaled 40%, and the Brazilian real rose 20% too.<\/p>\n<p>For him, two main elements will propel the Brazilian real higher. The first is the U.S.\u2019s willingness to end the current war in Iran as soon as possible, which will lift carry currencies such as the Brazilian real.<\/p>\n<p>The second driver of this predicted rise will be the uncertainty around the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. This benefits Brazil, a commodity and oil exporter, in turn propping up the real\u2019s value.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cIn 2022, we never quite made it below my fair value of 4.50, but I think that\u2019s now in play. I expect the coming months to see $\/BRL finally go below 4.50,\u201d<\/strong> Brooks <a href=\"https:\/\/robinjbrooks.substack.com\/p\/the-perfect-storm-for-the-brazilian\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">concluded<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Nonetheless, other uncertainties that can affect the Brazilian real\u2019s recovery remain, including the upcoming elections, which have become a toss-up between President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/a-lot-further-to-go-ex-goldman-strategist-predicts-a-massive-breakout-for-the-brazilian-real\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Driven by US-Iran tensions, Robin Brooks notes the undervalued Brazilian real will next surge past 4.5. As Hormuz Strait unrest boosts Brazil\u2019s exports, the market may next see a 20% real rally mirroring 2022. Upcoming elections between Lula da Silva and Fl\u00e1vio Bolsonaro may disrupt the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":72335,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72334"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72334"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72334\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}