{"id":72416,"date":"2026-05-12T19:02:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T19:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-2023\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T19:02:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T19:02:11","slug":"bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Turns Green for First Time Since March 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Cryptoquant\u2019s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned green for the first time since March 2023 on May 12.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The March 2023 signal preceded a bull run that took bitcoin above $73,000, but a 2022 false signal warrants caution.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">April spot ETF inflows hit $2.44B, and whale accumulation has grown, adding weight to the bullish read.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"2\"> <span>Bullish<\/span> Signal Flashes Near $80,000<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Cryptoquant\u2019s <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Bull- <span>Bear Market<\/span> Cycle Indicator <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/6a022eeebca224364eeb20bd-Bitcoins-Bull-Bear-Cycle-Indicator-Turns-Green-for-the-First-Time-Since-March-20?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=sns&amp;utm_campaign=quicktake&amp;utm_content=morenodv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">entered bullish territory<\/a> on Tuesday for the first time since March 2023, per data shared by the analytics firm. The shift marks what analysts describe as a potential transition from a bear-market environment to one where conditions historically favor a sustained uptrend.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_813484\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-813484\" style=\"width:875px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-813484\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Cryptoquant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The indicator is built on Cryptoquant\u2019s Profit and Loss (P&amp;L) Index, which aggregates three key onchain metrics, namely the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratios (LTH\/STH SOPR). When the P&amp;L Index climbs above its 365-day moving average, the indicator flips green. When it falls below, it turns red.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_813486\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-813486\" style=\"width:871px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-813486\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-20232_nwmk.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"871\" height=\"493\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-20232_nwmk-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-20232_nwmk-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-20232_nwmk-190x107.jpg 190w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-20232_nwmk-380x214.jpg 380w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/bitcoins-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-turns-green-for-first-time-since-march-20232_nwmk.jpg 871w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 871px) 100vw, 871px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-813486\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Bull-Bear indicator flips green, echoing previous cycle recovery signals.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The last confirmed green signal came in March 2023, and it held continuously until August 2024, a period that covered one of <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s most significant bull cycles, during which the price climbed from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. By that measure, Tuesday\u2019s flip carries meaningful weight for traders watching for cycle turning points.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Historical Context and 2026 Forecasts<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Despite the positive signal, Cryptoquant was careful to flag a caveat. In March 2022, the same indicator flashed green before price quickly rejected the move and continued lower, eventually bottoming out with the FTX collapse in November of that year. That false signal is why analysts say Tuesday\u2019s read should be treated as a data point to watch, not a guaranteed green light.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The timing of the flip aligns with several other <span>bullish<\/span> onchain developments accumulating simultaneously. April spot <span>bitcoin<\/span> exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/triple-win-for-bitcoin-etfs-with-532m-inflow-while-ethereum-adds-61m\/\">reached $2.44 billion<\/a>, the strongest institutional accumulation month since October 2025. <span>Whale<\/span> wallets holding 1,000 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">BTC<\/a> or more have grown by 142 addresses over the past six months. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Moreover, Glassnode\u2019s RHODL ratio <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BSCNews\/status\/2050625867827863724\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">currently sits at 4.5<\/a>, the third-highest reading in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s history; the only comparable prior readings occurred at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, both of which were followed by sustained <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bull markets<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The Bull-Bear indicator had been deep in negative territory as recently as February 2026, when Cryptoquant noted it had dropped to its lowest level since the FTX bottom. That stretch corresponded with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> pulling back from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. The recovery since has been gradual, with price stabilizing in the $80,000 range and ETF flows turning consistently positive heading into May. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Price forecasts for the rest of 2026 remain divided, with Standard Chartered and Bernstein both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-09\/bitcoin-bulls-standard-chartered-bernstein-pare-back-most-ambitious-forecasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">targeting $150,000 by year-end<\/a>, while Fidelity\u2019s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, has argued that the October 2025 high <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CryptoPatel\/status\/2002793690499305768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">may have been the cycle top<\/a>, with 2026 acting as a consolidation year rather than a continuation.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-bull-bear-cycle-indicator-green-2026\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Cryptoquant\u2019s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator turned green for the first time since March 2023 on May 12. The March 2023 signal preceded a bull run that took bitcoin above $73,000, but a 2022 false signal warrants caution. April spot ETF inflows hit $2.44B, and whale accumulation has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":72417,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72416"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72416\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}