{"id":72715,"date":"2026-05-19T00:32:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/nine-polymarket-accounts-flagged-after-98-win-rate-on-iran-strikes\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T00:32:52","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T00:32:52","slug":"nine-polymarket-accounts-flagged-after-98-win-rate-on-iran-strikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/nine-polymarket-accounts-flagged-after-98-win-rate-on-iran-strikes\/","title":{"rendered":"Nine Polymarket Accounts Flagged After 98% Win Rate on Iran Strikes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Nine Polymarket accounts netted over $2.4M with a 98% win rate on U.S. strikes, triggering insider alarms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Over $1B has been bet on military outcomes, bleeding into commodities like an $800M drop in oil futures.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">While Polymarket defends its AI surveillance, the CFTC under Michael Selig is using AI to fight the leaks.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Rise of Geopolitical Betting<\/h2>\n<p>Nine linked accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket earned more than $2.4 million by wagering almost exclusively on the timing of U.S. military actions in Iran, raising alarms among analysts who say the pattern strongly suggests insider trading. Bubblemaps, a <span>blockchain<\/span> analytics firm, said the accounts placed more than 80 bets with a 98% win rate, including wagers on the dates of the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran\u2019s supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,\u201d said Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps\u2019 co\u2011founder and CEO. \u201cLuck alone cannot explain those numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>According to a CBS <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/betting-on-iran-war-insider-trading-concerns-prediction-markets-60-minutes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">report<\/a>, more than $1 billion has been staked on military outcomes alone. However, the rise has also drawn scrutiny from regulators and investigators concerned that insiders with access to classified information may be exploiting the platforms.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is a new kind of insider trading,\u201d said Rob Schwartz, a partner at Morgan Lewis and former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) official. While Polymarket\u2019s transactions are publicly visible, traders\u2019 identities remain anonymous.<\/p>\n<p>However, Polymarket said it has built \u201cthe most comprehensive market integrity infrastructure in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction market<\/a> industry,\u201d combining strict insider\u2011trading rules, AI\u2011powered surveillance and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-a-blockchain\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">blockchain<\/a> forensics. The company said its enhanced market integrity rules prohibit insider trading, market manipulation and disruptive practices across both its decentralized platform and its CFTC\u2011regulated U.S. exchange.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket said it partners with \u201cworld\u2011class data analytics firms\u201d to conduct real\u2011time trade surveillance and anomaly detection, and that it refers suspicious activity to law enforcement.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke is a demonstration of our commitment in practice,\u201d the company said. \u201cPolymarket identified the activity, referred it to authorities, and the system worked. Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Federal prosecutors last month charged Army Master Sgt. Van Dyke with using classified information to place roughly $34,000 in bets on a special operations mission targeting former Venezuelan leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. Prosecutors say he earned more than $400,000. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.<\/p>\n<h2>Watchdogs Warn of Systemic Abuse<\/h2>\n<p>Bubblemaps\u2019 head of investigations said the number of people with access to sensitive operational details \u2014 from planners to intelligence analysts to family members \u2014 creates fertile ground for abuse.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Anti\u2011Corruption Data Collective found similar red flags. Its review of long\u2011shot Polymarket wagers \u2014 bets above $2,500 with less than a 35% chance of winning \u2014 showed bettors winning more often than expected, suggesting what the group called \u201csystemic insider trading.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Suspicious activity has also surfaced in traditional commodities markets. On March 23, as fighting in Iran continued, more than $800 million in <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/doj-cftc-probe-2-6b-oil-trades-before-trump-and-iran-statements-report\/\">oil futures<\/a> were suddenly placed on the expectation that prices would fall. Fifteen minutes later, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held \u201cvery good and productive\u201d talks. Oil prices dropped more than 10%.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re talking tens of millions, could be $80 million,\u201d said David Kovel, a former commodities trader now representing fraud victims. Federal investigators are probing the trades, though no charges have been filed.<\/p>\n<p>The stakes extend beyond financial markets. Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for the Times of Israel, said he received violent threats from <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/israel-indicts-duo-for-insider-trading-on-polymarket-with-classified-military-information\/\">bettors<\/a> after reporting that an Iranian missile strike landed in an empty forest \u2014 a detail that voided certain Polymarket wagers. Polymarket banned the accounts involved.<\/p>\n<p>Oversight of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction markets<\/a> falls to the CFTC, which has seen staffing and enforcement decline in recent years. Chairman Michael Selig declined an interview but said the agency is hiring and using artificial intelligence to identify misconduct. In March, the White House reminded staff that using nonpublic information on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction markets<\/a> is a criminal offense.<\/p>\n<p>Deebs warned that the implications go beyond financial crime. If analysts can detect irregular trades, he said, foreign adversaries can too \u2014 and may adjust their military planning accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cJust to put it plainly, this could be putting people\u2019s lives at risk,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/nine-polymarket-accounts-flagged-after-98-win-rate-on-iran-strikes\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Nine Polymarket accounts netted over $2.4M with a 98% win rate on U.S. strikes, triggering insider alarms. Over $1B has been bet on military outcomes, bleeding into commodities like an $800M drop in oil futures. While Polymarket defends its AI surveillance, the CFTC under Michael Selig [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":72716,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72715"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72715\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}