{"id":72791,"date":"2026-05-20T09:03:43","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T09:03:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/k33-research-says-bitcoins-60k-bottom-was-bear-markets-maximum-drawdown\/"},"modified":"2026-05-20T09:03:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T09:03:43","slug":"k33-research-says-bitcoins-60k-bottom-was-bear-markets-maximum-drawdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/k33-research-says-bitcoins-60k-bottom-was-bear-markets-maximum-drawdown\/","title":{"rendered":"K33 Research Says Bitcoin&#8217;s $60K Bottom Was Bear Market&#8217;s Maximum Drawdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">K33\u2019s Vetle Lunde says $60K was likely the 2026 bitcoin bear market\u2019s maximum drawdown.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Funding rates have been negative for 81 consecutive days, signaling uniquely pessimistic market sentiment.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">K33 projects bitcoin consolidating between $60,000 and $75,000 with no repeat of 80%-plus crashes.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight:400\"> <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s Downside Capped at $60K<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">In a research note published this week, K33\u2019s head of research, Vetle Lunde, argued that the conditions defining the 2026 <span>bear market<\/span> make an 80%-plus collapse (akin to those seen in 2018 and 2022) structurally unlikely. She added that the 2025 <span>bull market<\/span> was less aggressive than prior cycles, and a proportionally less severe <span>bear market<\/span> will follow as a consequence.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_815592\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-815592\" style=\"width:745px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-815592\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The firm\u2019s key evidence sits in derivatives data as <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s 30-day average funding rate has remained negative for 81 consecutive days, an unusually prolonged stretch of <span>bearish<\/span> positioning in perpetual swap markets. Lunde describes this as a \u201cuniquely pessimistic\u201d sentiment, which paradoxically stands to limit further downside by exhausting near-term selling pressure before a sustained decline can develop.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">K33\u2019s base case projects <span>bitcoin<\/span> consolidating within a range of $60,000 to $75,000, with slow grind dynamics rather than a sharp capitulation event. The \u201cmaximum drawdown\u201d in this scenario sits at the February low of approximately $60,000, a roughly 52% decline from the all-time high of $126,272 reached on October 6, 2025. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The numbers may be severe by historical standards for equities, but quite modest for a <span>bitcoin<\/span> <span>bear market<\/span> cycle, as previous cycles have produced peak-to-trough losses exceeding 80%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The key structural difference K33 points to is the role of institutional capital. With access to <span>bitcoin<\/span> now largely routed through regulated products, the extreme <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-leverage-in-crypto-trading\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">leverage<\/a> feedback loops that drove prior capitulations are harder to sustain at scale. Long-term holders also appear to be approaching selling exhaustion, a metric that in previous cycles has preceded a medium-term price floor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Moreover, in February, K33 flagged parallels to the late 2022 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bear market<\/a> bottom when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> first approached the $60,000 level. The latest note extends that argument forward, suggesting that if February was the floor, the market is now in slow recovery territory rather than mid-decline. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">For traders and long-term holders alike, the question now shifts from how low <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> can go to how long the consolidation lasts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <!-- --><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/k33-research-bitcoin-bear-market-bottom-60000-maximum-drawdown-2026\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways K33\u2019s Vetle Lunde says $60K was likely the 2026 bitcoin bear market\u2019s maximum drawdown. Funding rates have been negative for 81 consecutive days, signaling uniquely pessimistic market sentiment. K33 projects bitcoin consolidating between $60,000 and $75,000 with no repeat of 80%-plus crashes. Bitcoin\u2019s Downside Capped at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":72792,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72791"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72791"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72791\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72791"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72791"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72791"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}