{"id":73453,"date":"2026-06-02T18:31:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T18:31:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/the-onchain-line-behind-every-bitcoin-bottom-sits-near-40-short-of-maximum-opportunity\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T18:31:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T18:31:58","slug":"the-onchain-line-behind-every-bitcoin-bottom-sits-near-40-short-of-maximum-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/the-onchain-line-behind-every-bitcoin-bottom-sits-near-40-short-of-maximum-opportunity\/","title":{"rendered":"The Onchain Line Behind Every Bitcoin Bottom Sits Near 40%, Short of &#8216;Maximum Opportunity&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Cryptoquant contributor MorenoDV says the stress gauge sits near 40%, below the deeper readings that marked past bottoms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin opened June below $70,000 after a $2.43 billion May spot ETF outflow, the worst of 2026.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">MorenoDV urges patience, noting the strongest entries appear only after selling exhaustion is confirmed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight:400\">A Line That Keeps Marking Bottoms<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">MorenoDV pointed to an onchain stress measure that he says has lined up with every major <span>bitcoin<\/span> bottom for over a decade. The indicator tracks how much financial stress the market is absorbing, and historically it has reached extremes at the exact moments when <span>bitcoin<\/span> carved out its cycle lows.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Cryptoquant\u2019s contributors have become a regular reference point for traders trying to time the market\u2019s turning points, and MorenoDV\u2019s bottom indicator is among the metrics that draw the most attention during drawdowns. However, the current message is nuanced rather than a clean buy signal <\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_819427\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-819427\" style=\"width:732px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-819427\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">The view lines up with other work from the firm on the same theme as other Cryptoquant analysts have noted that <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s short-term risk-adjusted returns recently fell to a <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400\">four-year low<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400\">, with a related stress reading near the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400\">cycle lows seen at the end of 2015<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400\">, 2019, and 2022. Each of those troughs preceded a powerful recovery, which is why the metric is watched so closely.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Still, history is a guide, not a guarantee and that<\/span> backdrop could explain where the stress is coming from. <span>Bitcoin<\/span> opened June below $70,000 after sealing its third red monthly candle of 2026, and U.S. spot <span>bitcoin<\/span> exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shed about $2.43 billion in May, the largest monthly outflow of the year. Those redemptions drained a key source of demand and added to the pressure the indicator is now registering.<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight:400\">A Divided Cryptoquant Desk<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">MorenoDV\u2019s measured take sits within a wider, and not always consistent, debate among Cryptoquant analysts. Firm founder Ki Young Ju recently warned that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bear market<\/a> could <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/cryptoquant-ki-young-ju-bitcoin-bear-market-2027\/\"><span style=\"font-weight:400\">run into early 2027<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight:400\">, arguing that once profit-taking cascades, investor profit and loss typically deteriorates for about 18 months before the trend resets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">Other notes from the firm have struck a similar caution, warning at points that the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/cryptoquant-warns-bitcoin-bear-market-bottom-not-here-yet\/\"><span style=\"font-weight:400\">bear market bottom is not yet in<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight:400\">. Yet the same desk has also flagged signs of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400\">seller fatigue<\/span><span style=\"font-weight:400\"> that can precede a price bottom, and its bull-bear cycle indicator has flipped <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bullish<\/a> at times this year, muddying the picture.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight:400\">For now, the data says the market is in a high-stress phase that has historically rewarded patience over urgency. The next signal MorenoDV is waiting for is confirmation that selling has exhausted, the point at which past readings pushed into the \u201cmaximum opportunity\u201d zone and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> bottoms became visible only after the fact.<\/span><\/p>\n<p> <!-- --><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/cryptoquant-morenodv-bitcoin-bottom-line-40-percent\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Cryptoquant contributor MorenoDV says the stress gauge sits near 40%, below the deeper readings that marked past bottoms. Bitcoin opened June below $70,000 after a $2.43 billion May spot ETF outflow, the worst of 2026. MorenoDV urges patience, noting the strongest entries appear only after selling [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":73454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73453"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73453\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/73454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}