{"id":74166,"date":"2026-06-17T13:44:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T13:44:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/france-quietly-overtakes-spain-as-two-world-cup-prediction-markets-near-3b-in-combined-volume\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T13:44:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T13:44:44","slug":"france-quietly-overtakes-spain-as-two-world-cup-prediction-markets-near-3b-in-combined-volume","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/france-quietly-overtakes-spain-as-two-world-cup-prediction-markets-near-3b-in-combined-volume\/","title":{"rendered":"France Quietly Overtakes Spain as Two World Cup Prediction Markets Near $3B in Combined Volume"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket\u2019s World Cup winner market has logged $2.54 billion in total volume, with France leading at 18% odds.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi places France at 19.2% and Portugal third at 11%, with $333.7 million traded on that platform alone.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Portugal opens at 77 cents against DR Congo today in the week\u2019s highest- volume single match at $5.28 million.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>France Leads, Spain Slips<\/h2>\n<p>On <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/polymarket-newsart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket<\/a>, France sits at an <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/world-cup-winner\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">18%<\/a> implied probability, with shares trading at 18.5 cents and $58.3 million in individual contract <span>volume<\/span>. Argentina holds third at 12% with $57 million in <span>volume<\/span>, bolstered by Lionel Messi\u2019s continued presence and a disciplined defensive setup.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_823801\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-823801\" style=\"width:1954px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-823801\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Polymarket odds and <span>volume<\/span> on June 17, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Spain entered the tournament as a strong contender following their Euro 2024 title and the emergence of Lamine Yamal, but a group-stage draw against Cape Verde pulled their odds down to 13%. On <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a>, Spain\u2019s market probability reflects a <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxmenworldcup\/mens-world-cup-winner\/kxmenworldcup-26?op_market_ticker=KXMENWORLDCUP-26-FR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">sharper decline<\/a>, sitting at 12.8% and trending down 1.9%.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_823807\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-823807\" style=\"width:1572px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-823807 size-full\" title=\"France Quietly Overtakes Spain as Two World Cup Prediction Markets Near $3B in Combined Volume\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/screenshot-2026-06-17-at-8-33-52-am.png\" alt=\"Polymarket and Kalshi combined odds for World Cup winner. \" width=\"1572\" height=\"958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/screenshot-2026-06-17-at-8-33-52-am-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/screenshot-2026-06-17-at-8-33-52-am-1024x624.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/screenshot-2026-06-17-at-8-33-52-am-768x468.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/screenshot-2026-06-17-at-8-33-52-am-1536x936.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/screenshot-2026-06-17-at-8-33-52-am.png 1572w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1572px) 100vw, 1572px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-823807\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Polymarket and <span>Kalshi<\/span> combined odds on the World Cup winner on June 17, 2026. Odds are likely to change.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>England, with $42.3 million in Polymarket <span>volume<\/span> at 10%, is statistically tied with Portugal, which holds 10.3-cent contracts but commands $50.9 million in individual <span>volume<\/span>. Brazil sits at 7%, Germany at 6%, and the Netherlands at 4%.<\/p>\n<h2>Two Platforms, One Disagreement<\/h2>\n<p> <span>Kalshi<\/span> has France at 19.2%, slightly above Polymarket\u2019s 18% read, and lists Portugal third at 11%. The gap between platforms reflects how differently each market\u2019s participant base weighs recent match data and squad fitness signals. <span>Kalshi<\/span>\u2019s total <span>volume<\/span> stands at $333.7 million. Polymarket\u2019s market has accumulated $2.54 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The tournament is scheduled to begin in 32 days, on July 19, 2026. Both contracts resolve based on the official FIFA result, verified through outlets including ESPN, Fox Sports, and The Wall Street Journal.<\/p>\n<h2>Today\u2019s Market-Moving Matches<\/h2>\n<p>Wednesday\u2019s schedule is drawing significant <span>prediction market<\/span> activity. The day\u2019s highest- <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a> individual match on Polymarket is Portugal vs. DR Congo at 1:00 PM, which has pulled in $5.28 million. Portugal is priced at 77 cents, with DR Congo at 8 cents and a draw at 18 cents. The spread market shows Portugal at 53 cents to win by more than 1.5 goals.<\/p>\n<p>England faces Croatia at 4:00 PM in a match with $1.69 million in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a>. England opens as the favorite at 57 cents, with Croatia at 18 cents and a draw priced at 26 cents. Croatia\u2019s spread line at +1.5 sits at 70 cents, suggesting traders see a competitive match even if England wins.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier in the day, Ghana faces Panama at 7:00 PM in a match drawing $980,430 in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a>. Ghana is the slight favorite at 42 cents, with Panama and a draw both sitting at 30 cents. The Colombia vs. Uzbekistan match at 10:00 PM carries $1.20 million in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a>, with Colombia heavily favored at 71 cents against Uzbekistan at 10 cents.<\/p>\n<h2>What Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>With the knockout rounds still weeks away, the market remains fluid. Group-stage upsets, draw results, and injury news continue to shift probabilities daily. Spain\u2019s slip after the Cape Verde draw shows how quickly a single result can move millions of dollars in contracts.<\/p>\n<p>For traders positioned in the tournament winner market, today\u2019s results involving Portugal and England carry direct portfolio implications.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/france-quietly-overtakes-spain-as-two-world-cup-prediction-markets-near-3b-in-combined-volume\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Polymarket\u2019s World Cup winner market has logged $2.54 billion in total volume, with France leading at 18% odds. Kalshi places France at 19.2% and Portugal third at 11%, with $333.7 million traded on that platform alone. Portugal opens at 77 cents against DR Congo today in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":74167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74166"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74166"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74166\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74166"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74166"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74166"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}