{"id":74248,"date":"2026-06-19T08:26:54","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T08:26:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/next-io-co-founder-says-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets-is-the-most-difficult-point-to-resolve\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T08:26:54","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T08:26:54","slug":"next-io-co-founder-says-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets-is-the-most-difficult-point-to-resolve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/next-io-co-founder-says-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets-is-the-most-difficult-point-to-resolve\/","title":{"rendered":"Next.io Co-Founder Says Insider Trading in Prediction Markets Is &#8216;the Most Difficult Point to Resolve&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Lindh says the Sportradar\u2013Kalshi deal shows the gambling industry\u2019s anti-prediction front is cracking.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">He argues prediction market operators lack sportsbooks\u2019 incentive to stop insider trading.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Lindh sees Malta as the likely legal route into the EU, and operators rebranding as derivatives firms.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Sportradar \u2018Takes Sides\u2019 In Industry Standoff<\/h2>\n<p>When Sportradar agreed to supply <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-taps-sportradar-for-official-league-data-and-integrity-tools-in-prediction-markets\/\">official data<\/a> and integrity tooling to Kalshi this month, the move read as a technical milestone. For Pierre Lindh, co-founder and managing director of <a href=\"https:\/\/next.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Next.io<\/a> and the force behind its NEXTPredict brand, it is something larger. \u201cI think it brings a lot of validation to the <span>prediction market<\/span> space,\u201d he told <span>Bitcoin.com<\/span> News, adding that the agreement is \u201cvery much at the heart of settlement\u201d \u2013 the fast, secure resolution of markets Sportradar has spent two decades standardizing in sports betting. \u201cThat has not been the case in the <span>prediction market<\/span> space until now,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<p>Lindh sees a second signal in the deal. The American Gaming Association has been pressuring members not to work with <span>prediction market<\/span> operators, and several have <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/six-months-in-the-aga-exodus-has-reshaped-us-gamblings-lobbying-landscape\/\">walked<\/a>. Against that backdrop, and as partners continue to defect, \u201cit becomes more and more difficult for [the AGA] to hold back companies from working with the <span>prediction markets<\/span>.\u201d His conclusion: the association \u201cneeds to start thinking about revising the kind of zero tolerance policy that they have for <span>prediction market<\/span> space, because clearly it\u2019s not working.\u201d It\u2019s the <span>bullish<\/span> framing.<\/p>\n<p>The Sportradar move was followed by an awkward compliance story just days later in the industry press, when Nevada <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/kalshis-ip-geofence-still-lets-nevada-users-buy-banned-contracts-as-state-seeks-120000-a-day\/\">moved<\/a> to hold Kalshi in contempt over its insufficient geofence that was based on an in-house solution. Lindh \u2013 who said he was due to meet GeoComply\u2019s co-founder and chair Anna Sainsbury later that day \u2013 was blunt: \u201cGeoComply is the standard, just like Sportradar is the standard for settlement and official data,\u201d highlighting that operators should lean on proven vendors \u201crather than a DIY solution.\u201d His takeaway was clear:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s the right thing to save money on.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The momentum is real, if easy to overstate. US sports betting remains, as Lindh noted, \u201d much bigger than the <span>prediction market<\/span> space\u201d for now, though the gap is closing: based on his insights, the NBA Finals produced near-parity between sports bettors and <span>prediction markets<\/span> in terms of true handle, though he caveated the comparison himself: \u201cthe handle is not apples to apples in that regard, which makes the industry a little bit more difficult to compare.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The gap between the two figures is mechanical. A sportsbook bet is placed once and settles once, so a $100 wager adds $100 to handle. A prediction-market contract can be bought and sold many times before the event resolves \u2013 a trader opens a position, sells it on, the next holder sells again, and each trade is counted. The same dollar of conviction gets tallied repeatedly, inflating the prediction-market handle against a sportsbook\u2019s. That is why raw handle flatters the newer venues, and why revenue or unique <span>volume<\/span> is the cleaner yardstick.<\/p>\n<p>Real-money <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/world-cup-2026-could-draw-50-billion-in-bets-a-first-for-prediction-markets\/\">World Cup volumes<\/a> are projected to reach record highs across the sector \u2013 though whether the USMNT makes a deep run or not will have a huge impact on domestic totals, so the variance in the forecasts is high.<\/p>\n<h2>\u2018The Most Difficult Point to Resolve\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>Ask Lindh where the sector is most exposed, and he reaches for the newsroom rather than the courtroom. The stories that shape public perception, he said, are insider-trading cases and big lawsuits \u2013 and <span>prediction markets<\/span> have shifted from being \u201cmostly hailed as a truth machine\u201d to a chapter in the wider debate about the gamification of America, where \u201ceverything is becoming a bet.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On insider trading, Lindh was unusually candid for someone building a business on the sector\u2019s legitimacy. \u201cThis is going to be the sticking point and the most difficult point to resolve,\u201d he said. Stock-market insider trading is \u201cpretty ring-fenced\u201d and traceable, but geopolitical event markets are not: before a country is attacked, \u201cthe soldiers are briefed,\u201d and the information spreads outward. \u201cI think it\u2019s an impossible mission to close down the possibility of insider information,\u201d he admitted.<\/p>\n<p>He highlighted a key difference in business structure \u2013 and, in turn, the incentives: unlike a sportsbook, which loses money to a bad-faith bettor, a <span>prediction market<\/span> operator is a neutral intermediary. \u201cIf anyone loses or wins, it\u2019s not the concern of the platform. They will always make their fee,\u201d Lindh said, so \u201cthey don\u2019t have that big incentive to stop insider trading in the same way that the sports betting company has.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>This is also where the Sportradar deal\u2019s limits show: its tooling targets sports-match manipulation, not insider trading on political or geopolitical <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/cftc-says-sports-contracts-involve-gaming-but-proposes-to-allow-almost-all-of-them\/\">contracts<\/a>, which is where the loudest scandals sit. In a 2025 interview, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan suggested on CBS News\u2019 60 Minutes program that insiders \u201chaving an edge to the market is a good thing,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/polymarket-ceo-shayne-coplan-online-betting-platform-60-minutes-transcript\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">arguing<\/a> the activity speeds the discovery of truth. The company has since flipped on that stance, updating its rules in March 2026 to <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/markets\/crypto\/articles\/polymarket-buckles-down-insider-trading-211849324.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ban<\/a> trades on stolen confidential information, cooperating with authorities on high-profile cases like Maduro <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/maduro-raid-commando-pleads-not-guilty-after-400k-polymarket-bet-on-his-own-mission\/\">raid commando<\/a> Gannon Ken Van Dyke\u2019s bets.<\/p>\n<p>The countermeasures are limited, he said: they ban politicians and military personnel, but \u201cif you are active military service personnel, you can just tell your brother about this information,\u201d and \u201cthat person can make the trade instead.\u201d This, of course, would constitute a straightforward case of insider trading in a stock-market context. Tightening too far carries its own cost. In a fiercely competitive market, bans that thin out the trading pool are self-defeating, because \u201cthe operators that have the most <span>liquidity<\/span> are the ones that can offer the best product.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The result is \u201ca catch-22 for the operators,\u201d Lindh said, and his verdict is bleak: \u201cwith the nature of the world being so chaotic as it is, it\u2019s very, very hard to stop.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>The Road Into Europe \u2013 and Beyond <span>Prediction Markets<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The valuations only make sense, Lindh argued, once you see the cultural split. Europeans \u201cwill see sports betting\u201d when they look at the prediction-market product, while \u201cthe Americans are more raised as traders,\u201d and their reference points are \u201ccompetition in Robinhood or competition in Coinbase,\u201d not a bookmaker. As Lindh sees it, this is why \u201cFlutter is floating around [a] $18 billion <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-a-market-cap\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">market cap<\/a> whereas [Kalshi] is $22 billion,\u201d and why investors \u201cthink that [Kalshi] is the next Robinhood.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For Europe, Lindh sees one realistic doorway. Malta is \u201cthe only jurisdiction in Europe that is thinking of regulating this product as a financial derivative product,\u201d a classification that could open the whole EU, and \u201call the big ones are exploring Malta as a potential jurisdiction of interest.\u201d (Next.io hosted Polymarket at its Malta conference weeks earlier.)<\/p>\n<p>The optimism runs into recent precedent, though. Europe\u2019s top court has recently affirmed that member states <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/maltas-gaming-shield-faces-second-eu-legal-setback-in-a-week\/\">can ban<\/a> gambling products regardless of another country\u2019s license \u2013 and so long as national regulators keep treating <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction markets<\/a> as gambling, as the Netherlands did <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/polymarket-gets-hit-with-487000-dutch-penalty-for-halting-service-one-day-too-late\/\">with Polymarket<\/a> this month, a Maltese classification may not travel as cleanly as operators hope if the financial-derivative framing remains as contentious on the old continent as it is today.<\/p>\n<p>Further out, Lindh expects that operators will stop \u201cseeing themselves as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction markets<\/a> companies, but more as derivative companies,\u201d and \u201cthey\u2019ll start merging into Robinhood-type products eventually.\u201d He also expects US states to go with a tax-rather-than-ban approach in the medium term.<\/p>\n<p>For now, Lindh remains a user as much as an analyst. A Swede, he is \u201choping that Sweden will win\u201d the World Cup and admits he checks the markets constantly during matches \u2013 \u201ca hundred times a day probably.\u201d The rationale is more human than you might expect: \u201cIt\u2019s always fun to play some trades.\u201d For an industry still fighting over whether it is finance or gambling, that may be the most honest answer of all.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/next-io-co-founder-says-insider-trading-in-prediction-markets-is-the-most-difficult-point-to-resolve\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Lindh says the Sportradar\u2013Kalshi deal shows the gambling industry\u2019s anti-prediction front is cracking. He argues prediction market operators lack sportsbooks\u2019 incentive to stop insider trading. Lindh sees Malta as the likely legal route into the EU, and operators rebranding as derivatives firms. Sportradar \u2018Takes Sides\u2019 In [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362403,"featured_media":74249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74248"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362403"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74248\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}