{"id":74554,"date":"2026-06-25T22:02:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T22:02:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/vinny-lingham-predicted-saylor-would-hurt-bitcoin-more-than-ftx-now-hes-explaining-why-bitcoin-news\/"},"modified":"2026-06-25T22:02:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T22:02:41","slug":"vinny-lingham-predicted-saylor-would-hurt-bitcoin-more-than-ftx-now-hes-explaining-why-bitcoin-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/vinny-lingham-predicted-saylor-would-hurt-bitcoin-more-than-ftx-now-hes-explaining-why-bitcoin-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Vinny Lingham Predicted Saylor Would Hurt Bitcoin More Than FTX. Now He&#8217;s Explaining Why \u2013 Bitcoin News"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Vinny Lingham predicted in October 2024 that Saylor would damage bitcoin more than FTX, with MSTR now down over 80%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Strategy holds $6.7B in convertible notes; Shin cites an analyst who estimates covering early maturities requires selling up to 74,000 BTC or more.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Lingham says STRC, trading under $76, will never return to $100 par, and that Strategy\u2019s cash runway is limited.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Lingham Called It Early<\/h2>\n<p>The co-founder of Praxos Capital, Vinny Lingham, once known as the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/oracle-vinny-lingham-expects-high-bitcoin-volatility-btc-price-likely-to-hold-12k-handle-for-30-days\/\">Oracle<\/a>,\u201d joined Laura Shin for an episode of the Unchained podcast that aired on June 25, 2026. At the outset of the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/laurashin\/status\/2070150389010403494?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">interview<\/a>, Lingham was quick to revisit a prediction he made two years earlier about Strategy, the <span>bitcoin<\/span> treasury company formerly known as Microstrategy.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_826231\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-826231\" style=\"width:1368px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-826231\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Laura Shin\u2019s X post on Thursday.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In October 2024, Lingham <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/is-microstrategys-bitcoin-leverage-a-bigger-threat-than-ftx-vinny-lingham-suggests-its-possible\/\">posted<\/a> a warning on X that Michael Saylor would ultimately do more damage to <span>bitcoin<\/span> than <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/from-a-32-billion-valuation-to-financial-troubles-an-in-depth-look-at-the-rise-and-fall-of-ftx\/\">FTX<\/a>. The prediction drew mockery at the time. MicroStrategy was trading near its all-time high of $473.83. As of this week, MSTR has dropped more than 80% from that peak, trading around $90.70.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI put out a tweet back in October 2024 saying that, ultimately, I believed Michael Saylor would do more damage to <span>bitcoin<\/span> than FTX,\u201d Lingham explained during the interview with Shin.<\/p>\n<p>He added:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cAt the time, it was a very unpopular prediction. Now, 18 months later, people are starting to wonder whether I was actually right.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>The \u2018Saylor Scheme\u2019<\/h2>\n<p>Lingham stops short of calling Strategy a Ponzi scheme, but he has coined his own term for what Saylor built.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s built an extremely complex capital structure consisting of debt and multiple layers of preferred securities,\u201d Lingham argued \u201cI jokingly call it a \u2018Saylor scheme.\u2019 He issued STRC, STRD, STRK \u2026 and several others. When one offering stopped working, he simply introduced another.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_826245\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-826245\" style=\"width:1996px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-826245 size-full\" title=\"Vinny Lingham Predicted Saylor Would Hurt Bitcoin More Than FTX. Now He's Explaining Why\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/strc_2026-06-25_16-50-29.png\" alt=\"STRC chart on June 25, 2026. \" width=\"1996\" height=\"1028\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/strc_2026-06-25_16-50-29-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/strc_2026-06-25_16-50-29-1024x527.png 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/strc_2026-06-25_16-50-29-768x396.png 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/strc_2026-06-25_16-50-29-1536x791.png 1536w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/strc_2026-06-25_16-50-29.png 1996w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1996px) 100vw, 1996px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-826245\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Tradingview STRC chart on June 25, 2026, after close.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>STRC, one of the preferred share classes at the center of recent market concern, closed today at $75.69, after falling under $74 earlier this week. Lingham does not expect it to recover.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t believe STRC ever returns to $100,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019d bet it never trades back at par again.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>The Chess Endgame<\/h2>\n<p>Strategy recently raised $335 million, selling 2.7 million shares of common stock and using roughly $300 million to build its cash reserves to approximately $1.4 billion. That cash is expected to cover preferred dividend obligations for about 10 months. In Lingham\u2019s view, the market responded by continuing to sell both MSTR and STRC.<\/p>\n<p>Lingham says the company\u2019s recent move to bimonthly dividend payments made the situation worse. More frequent payment cycles mean management has less time to respond when conditions deteriorate, and each cycle tightens the pressure on cash reserves.<\/p>\n<p>He describes Saylor\u2019s current position using a term from chess.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cMichael is now in what\u2019s known in chess as zugzwang,\u201d Lingham said. \u201cEvery move available to him is a losing move. If he raises the dividend yield, he shortens his cash runway. If he issues more shares, he dilutes common shareholders further.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>The $6.7 Billion Debt Problem<\/h2>\n<p>During the discussion, Shin explained that Matt Walsh a founding partner of Castle Island Ventures, recently <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MattWalshInBos\/status\/2069989274196275329?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">raised concerns<\/a> about Strategy\u2019s convertible notes, which total roughly $6.7 billion outstanding. Shin said the notes carry put rights that allow holders to demand cash repayment at par if the notes are not converted or refinanced. Walsh estimated that covering the first three maturities through June 2028, at a <span>bitcoin<\/span> price around $60,700, would require selling approximately 74,000 <span>BTC<\/span>. Covering the full schedule would require around 111,000 <span>bitcoin<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Lingham responded to Shin\u2019s summary of Walsh\u2019s X post and insisted that the market is already pricing that risk in.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cStrategy sold just 32 <span>bitcoin<\/span> and the market reacted negatively,\u201d he said. \u201cImagine what happens if the company eventually has to sell tens of thousands of <span>bitcoin<\/span>.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>The Reflexive Loop in Reverse<\/h2>\n<p>Lingham argues that Strategy\u2019s aggressive accumulation created a self-reinforcing cycle that worked well on the way up. The company bought <span>bitcoin<\/span>, which he believes pushed the price higher, which increased MSTR\u2019s value, which allowed it to issue more shares and buy more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>. He now argues that the cycle is running in reverse.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOnce Strategy stops being the biggest buyer of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>, selling pressure starts outweighing buying pressure,\u201d he said. \u201c <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-liquidity\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Liquidity<\/a> disappears. The largest source of demand is gone.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He added that Strategy\u2019s mNAV sitting around 1.06 is historically a level at which similar investment vehicles trade to a discount. He said a value closer to 0.90 would make more sense given the circumstances.<\/p>\n<h2>What Comes Next<\/h2>\n<p>Lingham told the Unchained podcast host that the healthiest outcome would be for Saylor to stop buying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>, stop issuing new shares, preserve cash, and wait for a market cycle recovery. He does not expect that to happen.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI don\u2019t think he\u2019ll admit that the strategy needs to change,\u201d Lingham said. \u201cI think hubris plays a significant role here.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/vinny-lingham-predicted-saylor-would-hurt-bitcoin-more-than-ftx-now-hes-explaining-why\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Vinny Lingham predicted in October 2024 that Saylor would damage bitcoin more than FTX, with MSTR now down over 80%. Strategy holds $6.7B in convertible notes; Shin cites an analyst who estimates covering early maturities requires selling up to 74,000 BTC or more. Lingham says STRC, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":74555,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74554"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74554"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74554\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74555"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}