{"id":74670,"date":"2026-06-28T17:10:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T17:10:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-cheaper-than-90-of-its-history-right-now-says-big-print-author-lawrence-lepard\/"},"modified":"2026-06-28T17:10:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T17:10:39","slug":"bitcoin-cheaper-than-90-of-its-history-right-now-says-big-print-author-lawrence-lepard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-cheaper-than-90-of-its-history-right-now-says-big-print-author-lawrence-lepard\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Cheaper Than 90% of Its History Right Now, Says Big Print Author Lawrence Lepard"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Lepard says Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed task force on inflation measurement is designed to justify rate cuts before the 2026 midterms.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin at $59K sits in a historical cheapness zone reached less than 10% of the time, per the power law model.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Strategy carries roughly $1.7B in annual preferred dividends against $55B in held bitcoin, a load Lepard says bitcoin at 4% annual gains can cover.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Fed Chair Playing Both Sides<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard outlined why he believes Fed Chair <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/kevin-warsh-first-congress-testimony-july-14\/\">Kevin Warsh<\/a> is signaling rate cuts even while the market prices in hikes. Before taking the role, Warsh publicly argued that the Dallas trimmed mean PCE, running about 100 basis points below headline CPI, may be a more accurate <span>inflation<\/span> gauge. He also compared today\u2019s artificial intelligence (AI) productivity gains to the mid-1990s tech boom, when Greenspan held rates low without triggering <span>inflation<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think both of those things implied to me that he wants to cut rates,\u201d Lepard said during the <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/n67u-O2Xn2U?si=IIrqSCkCdLfqAWU7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">interview<\/a>. \u201cI suspect he said both of those things to Trump. I suspect that\u2019s partly how he got selected for the job.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That changed after bad <span>inflation<\/span> prints tied to elevated oil prices following the <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/iran-moves-to-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-as-tensions-erupt-over-broken-ceasefire-deal\/\">Strait of Hormuz<\/a> closure. Now the market is pricing in rate hikes. Lepard thinks that read is wrong.<\/p>\n<p>His reasoning: the U.S. government is carrying $1.3 trillion in annual interest expense. Raising rates materially is, in his view, structurally impossible. Warsh\u2019s newly formed task force on <span>inflation<\/span> measurement, Lepard argues, is designed to give political cover for declaring <span>inflation<\/span> lower than headline numbers show, creating a path to cuts before the midterm elections.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe odds of the Fed raising the rates this year is zero,\u201d he stressed. \u201cAnd the market thinks the odds of them raising rates this year is 100%. One of us is right and one of us is wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin and the Power Law<\/h2>\n<p> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> broke below $60,000 during the interview. Lepard noted it also crossed below the 200-day moving average and briefly fell outside the power law corridor, a log-scale model developed by researcher Giovanni Santostasi and expanded by mathematician Fred Krueger that fits <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s price history with a 95% R-squared correlation.<\/p>\n<p>Lepard described the current price as sitting near or below half a standard deviation below the power law mean, a zone <span>bitcoin<\/span> has occupied less than 10% of its entire trading history. In prior <span>bear markets<\/span>, prices in that zone tended to recover within weeks to months.<\/p>\n<p>He cited prior <span>bear market<\/span> drawdowns of 70%, 80%, and 90% as context for why this cycle\u2019s roughly 50% correction from October\u2019s peak may indicate maturing adoption and declining <span>volatility<\/span>. He does not rule out a further slide to the low $50,000s but considers sub-$50,000 unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c <span>Bitcoin<\/span> right now compared to its 200-day moving average through its entire history is really quite cheap,\u201d he remarked.<\/p>\n<p>Lepard continued:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s only been this cheap less than 10% of the time.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>The Next Big Print<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard\u2019s core macro thesis holds that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, currently around 124%, cannot be resolved through growth alone. He cited former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson\u2019s recent Bloomberg appearance after 15 years of public silence as a signal that insiders are preparing markets for a future <span>liquidity<\/span> crisis.<\/p>\n<p>Each successive Fed intervention has been larger than the last. The 2008 response totaled roughly $2 to $3 trillion over three years. The COVID response hit approximately $5 trillion over 18 months. Lepard expects the next intervention to exceed both in size and speed.<\/p>\n<p>He frames <span>gold<\/span>, silver, and <span>bitcoin<\/span> as monetary debasement insurance, essentially the debasement trade. <span>Bitcoin<\/span> ranks first in his hierarchy because it cannot be printed, transfers in minutes, carries no storage cost, and has a 16-year track record of adoption growth despite repeated deep drawdowns.<\/p>\n<h2>Strategy and the Math<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard also said critics of Michael Saylor\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/michael-saylor-teases-bullish-signal-more-charts-may-be-coming-as-strategys-bitcoin-accumulation-grows\/\">Strategy<\/a> have not done the basic math. Strategy\u2019s preferred stock dividend obligations run roughly $1.7 billion annually. With approximately $55 billion in <span>bitcoin<\/span> on the balance sheet at the time of the interview, Lepard estimates Strategy would need to sell about 4% of its <span>bitcoin<\/span> per year to cover that obligation. If <span>bitcoin<\/span> appreciates at least 4% annually, common shareholders break even on that mechanism alone. <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s historical annualized return has run far above that level.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou can\u2019t break Strategy,\u201d he said. \u201cI mean, you break it if <span>bitcoin<\/span> breaks. But if <span>bitcoin<\/span> stays at $50,000 to 60,000 for a couple of years, they\u2019re going to be completely fine.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>He added that he has been selling some <span>gold<\/span> and silver positions to buy both <span>bitcoin<\/span> and Strategy shares at current prices, which he considers attractive given Strategy\u2019s $33 billion <span>market cap<\/span> against what he projects is a multi-trillion dollar long-term potential.<\/p>\n<h2>Where Lepard Is Positioned<\/h2>\n<p>Lepard holds a large personal <span>bitcoin<\/span> ( <span>BTC<\/span>) stack and a significant Strategy position. He told listeners to size <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> exposure so that a 50% decline would not force a sale, and said at current prices he would consider a lump-sum entry rather than <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/dollar-cost-averaging\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dollar-cost averaging<\/a>, given how rarely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> reaches this price zone relative to its history.<\/p>\n<p>His price targets: approximately $180,000 in the next two years, $1 million around 2031 or 2032 based on the power law, and roughly $6 million per coin within 15 years. He frames those targets as consistent outputs of a model that has held with 95% correlation across <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s full market history.<\/p>\n<h6><em>Hero\/feature image source: The Youtube show RE:Bitcoin episode \u201cWe Broke Below The Power Law with Lawrence Lepard.\u201d<\/em><\/h6>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"You Can&#039;t Break Strategy with Lawrence Lepard | RE:Bitcoin\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/n67u-O2Xn2U?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p> <!-- --><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-cheaper-than-90-of-its-history-right-now-says-big-print-author-lawrence-lepard\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Lepard says Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed task force on inflation measurement is designed to justify rate cuts before the 2026 midterms. Bitcoin at $59K sits in a historical cheapness zone reached less than 10% of the time, per the power law model. Strategy carries roughly $1.7B in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":74671,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74670"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}