{"id":74730,"date":"2026-06-30T00:41:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T00:41:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-metric-that-marked-every-cycle-bottom-since-2016-just-flashed-again-analyst-says\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T00:41:36","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T00:41:36","slug":"bitcoin-metric-that-marked-every-cycle-bottom-since-2016-just-flashed-again-analyst-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-metric-that-marked-every-cycle-bottom-since-2016-just-flashed-again-analyst-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Metric That Marked Every Cycle Bottom Since 2016 Just Flashed Again, Analyst Says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Cryptoquant data shows bitcoin investors are realizing losses at a pace not seen earlier in the current correction, with a key on-chain signal flashing again.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The latest reading points to a rise in loss-driven transactions, a pattern seen during periods of heavy selling pressure.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">More bitcoin is now moving below cost basis, a condition linked to volatile phases in past market cycles.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Bitcoin Metric Drops to Levels Last Seen Near Market Bottoms<\/h2>\n<p>Market data shows <span>bitcoin<\/span> investors are increasingly realizing losses, with a key on-chain indicator flashing a capitulation signal for the first time during the current correction. On June 29, Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2070902182539304969\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shared<\/a> analysis on X that the <span>UTXO<\/span> Block Profit\/Loss Count Ratio has fallen into a range historically associated with bear-market conditions.<\/p>\n<p>The model measures the balance between <span>bitcoin<\/span> transactions completed in profit and those completed at a loss by analyzing <span>UTXOs<\/span>, the transaction outputs that record coin ownership and cost basis on the <span>Bitcoin<\/span> <span>blockchain<\/span>. The analysis states that \u201c <span>UTXO<\/span> analysis indicates that investor capitulation is underway,\u201d adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThis is the first time this signal has triggered since the start of the correction.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The declining ratio shows that more spent <span>UTXOs<\/span> are being realized at a loss than during earlier stages of the correction. Historically, the indicator has climbed during periods dominated by profit-taking and fallen sharply as realized losses become more widespread across the network.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2>Historical Chart Shows Similar Signals During Earlier Bitcoin Bear Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Historical data displayed in the Cryptoquant chart included with the analysis places previous signals around major <span>bitcoin<\/span> drawdowns in 2016, late 2018, 2020, and 2022. Each blue marker appeared after the ratio had fallen to depressed levels, indicating that realized losses had become increasingly common before subsequent market recoveries.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis describes the latest reading as the beginning of a broader capitulation process rather than a single market event. It adds that these periods unfold over extended timeframes as more investors exit positions and interest in the market fades.<\/p>\n<p>Commenting on the analysis, Quinten Fran\u00e7ois, a <span>crypto<\/span> analyst and co-founder of WeRate, which has rebranded to Lokal, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/QuintenFrancois\/status\/2071551302086058193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">wrote<\/a> on X on June 29:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThis metric flashed at every <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> cycle bottom since 2016. And it just flashed again.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The indicator is derived entirely from completed on-chain transactions rather than price action or derivatives positioning. It tracks realized investor behavior recorded on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-a-blockchain\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">blockchain<\/a>, providing a historical measure of when loss realization has reached levels that previously aligned with several major <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> cycle lows.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-metric-that-marked-every-cycle-bottom-since-2016-just-flashed-again-analyst-says\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Cryptoquant data shows bitcoin investors are realizing losses at a pace not seen earlier in the current correction, with a key on-chain signal flashing again. The latest reading points to a rise in loss-driven transactions, a pattern seen during periods of heavy selling pressure. More bitcoin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":74731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74730"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74730"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74730\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74730"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74730"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74730"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}