{"id":74740,"date":"2026-06-30T05:46:35","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T05:46:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/arkham-intelligence-ranks-polymarket-traders-by-skill-top-forecaster-hits-66-1-win-rate\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T05:46:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T05:46:35","slug":"arkham-intelligence-ranks-polymarket-traders-by-skill-top-forecaster-hits-66-1-win-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/arkham-intelligence-ranks-polymarket-traders-by-skill-top-forecaster-hits-66-1-win-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"Arkham Intelligence Ranks Polymarket Traders by Skill \u2014 Top Forecaster Hits 66.1% Win Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Arkham Intelligence launched Prediction Market Elo on June 29, 2026, ranking Polymarket traders by accuracy rather than profit or volume.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">GardenerCx holds the top Elo score of 2389 with a 66.1% win rate across 2,512 resolved crypto markets on Polymarket.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The Elo leaderboard is live now under the Rating tab at arkm.com\/predictions\/leaderboard, separate from the existing PnL rankings.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>What Elo Measures<\/h2>\n<p>The new feature, called <span>Prediction Market<\/span> Elo, applies an Elo\/MMR-style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and competitive gaming matchmaking. It ranks traders based on how consistently they predict correct outcomes, not on how much money they move.<\/p>\n<p>Arkham <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/arkham\/status\/2071653290752754030?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">described<\/a> the system at launch: \u201cSome traders consistently win on Polymarket, bet after bet. We\u2019ve created <span>prediction market<\/span> performance ratings (Elo) on Arkham Intel to help you find them.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Every correct prediction raises a trader\u2019s Elo score relative to the broader trader pool. Predictions made at lower odds carry more weight than those made at higher odds, since calling a longshot correctly signals more edge. Bet size is not factored in at all, meaning a trader with a small bankroll but a high hit rate can outrank a high- <span>volume<\/span> <span>whale<\/span> operating with lower consistency.<\/p>\n<h2>Who Leads the Elo Board<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/arkham-flags-roswell-new-mexicos-0-173-btc-reserve-in-viral-alien-meme-post\/\">Arkham<\/a> leaderboard\u2019s Rating tab shows \u201cGardenerCx\u201d holding the top Elo score of 2389 as of launch. The account specializes in short-term <span>crypto<\/span> up\/down markets on Polymarket, trading 5-minute price direction calls. Across 2,512 resolved markets, the account carries a 66.1% win rate and a 47% return on investment (ROI), with $51.4K in realized profit on $110.7K in capital.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_827307\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-827307\" style=\"width:2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-827307\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: Arkham Intelligence<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Arkham noted in its launch post that GardenerCx \u201crevolves around trading <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/a-quick-introduction-to-crypto\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">crypto<\/a> up\/down 5-minute markets with incredible accuracy\u201d with a win rate of 64.3% over 2,644 bets at the time of the announcement.<\/p>\n<p>The second-ranked account, \u201croberto73,\u201d focuses on soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, posting a 47.8% win rate across 2,835 markets with $177.8K in profit and an Elo of 2254. Third-ranked \u201cOliveira39\u201d covers sports including soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win rate over 1,817 markets and $50.1K in profit.<\/p>\n<h2>The PnL vs. Elo Divide<\/h2>\n<p>The contrast between profit-based rankings and Elo standings is one of the feature\u2019s clearest signals. On the Top Traders tab filtered by 7-day performance, \u201cblunttedge\u201d leads with a 75% win rate across 1,027 trades and $8.3M in profit. \u201c1two1two\u201d follows with an 83.3% win rate across 2,435 trades and $5.6M in PnL.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSwisstony,\u201d one of the platform\u2019s most prolific bettors, ranks third on the PnL board with a 52.9% win rate across 261,298 trades and $3.4M in recent profit. On the Elo board, the account holds a rating of 1514, placing it in the top 7% of traders but well below the accuracy leaders. Arkham noted that despite his high sizing and PnL, \u201chis trades are less consistently profitable\u201d compared to traders who score higher on pure forecasting accuracy.<\/p>\n<p>The separation illustrates the system\u2019s intent. PnL leaderboards can be driven by position size and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a>. The Elo board surfaces traders who get outcomes right consistently, regardless of how much capital they deploy.<\/p>\n<h2>Background and Access<\/h2>\n<p>Arkham first launched a full Prediction Markets analytics suite in early May 2026. That suite included PnL-based leaderboards, individual trader profiles with full position history and win rate graphs, real-time trade feeds filterable by category, and deep integration with Arkham\u2019s entity database, which contains more than 3.5 billion address labels and over 800,000 verified entities.<\/p>\n<p>The Elo feature builds directly on that foundation as an accuracy layer sitting alongside existing profit-based tools.<\/p>\n<h2>What It Means for Traders<\/h2>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Prediction market<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a> on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi has grown steadily through 2026. Until now, leaderboard visibility has gone primarily to the largest bettors and biggest PnL names. The Elo system gives researchers and traders a way to identify forecasters with documented skill, a cleaner signal for those looking to follow or analyze consistent edge rather than raw profit.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/arkham-intelligence-ranks-polymarket-traders-by-skill-top-forecaster-hits-66-1-win-rate\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Arkham Intelligence launched Prediction Market Elo on June 29, 2026, ranking Polymarket traders by accuracy rather than profit or volume. GardenerCx holds the top Elo score of 2389 with a 66.1% win rate across 2,512 resolved crypto markets on Polymarket. The Elo leaderboard is live now [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":74741,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74740"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}