{"id":74814,"date":"2026-07-01T17:21:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T17:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/prediction-markets-peg-usmnt-as-favorite-against-bosnia-with-oddsmakers-hoping-for-penalty-shootout\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T17:21:44","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T17:21:44","slug":"prediction-markets-peg-usmnt-as-favorite-against-bosnia-with-oddsmakers-hoping-for-penalty-shootout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/prediction-markets-peg-usmnt-as-favorite-against-bosnia-with-oddsmakers-hoping-for-penalty-shootout\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets Peg USMNT as Favorite Against Bosnia, With Oddsmakers Hoping For Penalty Shootout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Kalshi traders price the USMNT at 85% to advance past Bosnia in Round of 32 tie.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The same market gives the U.S. just a ~5% chance to win the World Cup, down sharply after a tougher draw.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The U.S. team is priced at 48% to cover a -1.5 goal margin.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>How the markets see USA-Bosnia<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, the USA is <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxwcadvance\/world-cup-advance\/kxwcadvance-26jul01usabih\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">priced at 85%<\/a> to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 of the FIFA World Cup, making for one of the most lopsided knockout prices on the board. Bosnia reached the knockout round as the highest-ranked third-place finisher after a 1-1-1 group stage in which it was outscored 6-5, while the U.S. topped its group despite a 3-2 loss to T\u00fcrkiye in a dead-rubber final match with heavy squad rotation.<\/p>\n<p>The margin, though, is less certain than the outcome. <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a>\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxwcgame\/world-cup-game\/kxwcgame-26jul01usabih\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">regulation-time market<\/a> prices the U.S. at roughly 48% to win by two or more goals, meaning traders see a comfortable-but-not-blowout result as close to a coin flip. Caesars\u2019 head of soccer trading, Mark Bickerdike, described a similar picture to FOX Sports from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com\/stories\/soccer\/2026-world-cup-betting-usa-big-liability-bosnia-herzegovina\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the sportsbook side<\/a>, noting the desk had been struck by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-trading-volume\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volume<\/a> of patriotic money: \u201cIt\u2019s half understandable, but equally, we were surprised to see the scale of the action,\u201d he said. He added that the book\u2019s preferred outcome is not just a U.S. win but a tight one: \u201cAbsolutely, a draw in 90 minutes is preferred, regardless of the result after that,\u201d with \u201cthe USA winning on penalties\u201d the ideal for continued engagement. Bickerdike said most of the book\u2019s liability sits on the Over.<\/p>\n<p>Where traders have turned cautious is the bigger picture. <a href=\"https:\/\/srt.bitcoin.com\/kalshi-may\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Kalshi<\/a> now prices the U.S. at roughly 5% to win the tournament outright, and the contract on the Americans being eliminated in the next round of play has climbed from 26% to 35% in under a week, reflecting a harder projected path \u2013 a probable meeting with Belgium or Senegal next, and heavyweights beyond. On Polymarket, the offshore competitor, the same title bet trades even lower, at around 3%. For the Bosnia game, trades have the <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/sports\/world-cup\/fifwc-usa-bih-2026-07-01\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">USMNT at 90%<\/a> to advance, rounded, with the split at 70% for an outright win, 20% for the bookies\u2019 preferred full-time draw, and 11% for a U.S. loss in regulation.<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Prediction markets<\/a> have become a fixture of this World Cup, with volumes across the sector running into the tens of <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/prediction-market-traders-push-april-2026-volume-to-8-6b-kalshi-takes-the-lead\/\">billions of dollars<\/a> monthly and platforms adding ever more granular in-game contracts. That growth has drawn intensifying regulatory pressure on both sides of the Atlantic, with nine European gambling regulators <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/kalshis-messi-fronted-world-cup-push-meets-a-nine-nation-european-warning\/\">pledging coordinated action<\/a> against unlicensed <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-are-prediction-markets\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">prediction markets<\/a>, but for now the tournament has become one of the busiest event-contract categories on the board.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/prediction-markets-peg-usmnt-as-favorite-against-bosnia-with-oddsmakers-hoping-for-penalty-shootout\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Kalshi traders price the USMNT at 85% to advance past Bosnia in Round of 32 tie. The same market gives the U.S. just a ~5% chance to win the World Cup, down sharply after a tougher draw. The U.S. team is priced at 48% to cover [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362403,"featured_media":74815,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74814"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362403"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74814"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74814\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}