{"id":74983,"date":"2026-07-05T18:01:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-05T18:01:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/how-the-mighty-have-fallen-but-thats-crypto-baby\/"},"modified":"2026-07-05T18:01:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-05T18:01:07","slug":"how-the-mighty-have-fallen-but-thats-crypto-baby","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/how-the-mighty-have-fallen-but-thats-crypto-baby\/","title":{"rendered":"How the Mighty Have Fallen. But That\u2019s Crypto, Baby!"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b>
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The stock market pushed higher once again this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the green, and the Dow Jones staging a massive rally to new all-time highs as of Friday morning. The dollar continues to show strength. Luke Gromen believes a \u201ctoo strong\u201d dollar will trigger foreign selling of U.S. assets<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the digital assets realm, Bitcoin<\/span> recovered some of its losses but remains in a clear weekly downtrend, currently trading at $61,438 after tradfi markets\u2019 close. Despite Bitcoin<\/span> spending last week scraping its lowest levels since October 2024, there is hope. Every time BTC<\/span> has closed two consecutive red 6-month candles, a three-year uptrend has followed<\/a>, and the second one closes in days. Or how about John Bollinger highlighting a developing \u2018W\u2019 pattern in BTC<\/a>?<\/p>\n

The bottom-callers are getting louder. Bluntz says the same weekly bear divergences that nailed the SOL<\/span> top now cut the other way, and that if you\u2019re bearish on Solana down here you are impaired<\/a>. AltcoinPsycho, who publicly bought near the SOL<\/span> bottom last cycle in one of the highest-PnL trades of his career, says we have another chance to do it again, and he\u2019s heavily accumulating spot<\/a>. That\u2019s all well and good for Solana<\/span>, but what about Bitcoin<\/span>? Well, there was the largest single on-chain accumulation of Bitcoin ever recorded<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A good sentiment sign came when billionaire Jeremy Grantham disparaged Bitcoin and crypto<\/a> on CNBC, saying, \u201cWhat does crypto<\/span> do? What\u2019s the use of crypto<\/span>\u2026 There\u2019s no there there<\/i>.\u201d Later he added, \u201cproof of unnecessary work shouldn\u2019t be worth a bucket of warm spit<\/i>.\u201d Joe Kernen, who had been cordial up to that point, knocked the billionaire down a few pegs by pointing out his abysmal track record for the past couple decades.<\/p>\n

The markets have also been humbling Bitcoin<\/span> main character Michael Saylor who has been reeling since May when Strategy inexplicably bought back $1.5 billion worth of 0% convertible senior notes due 2029.<\/p>\n

This week Strategy\u2019s unveiled a new Digital Credit Capital Framework<\/a>, which finally addresses the STRC dividend payment issue. It achieves this through a new $2.55 billion USD reserve policy. The framework also authorized up to $1 billion in preferred \u201cDigital Credit<\/i>\u201d buybacks plus $1 billion in MSTR common buybacks, and a BTC<\/span> Monetization Program permitting conditional Bitcoin<\/span> sales of up to $1.25 billion to fund reserves, dividends, and repurchases. Stretch (STRC) got a 50 bps dividend bump to 12%<\/a>, effective for July, hopefully pushing STRC back toward its $99\u2013$100 par.<\/p>\n

Reactions were mostly positive, mainly because STRC is sorted, but some are upset with details. For example, buybacks. In fact Mr. Saylor posted in 2021 that companies repurchasing stock with cash weaken their business<\/a>, and those buying back stock with debt actually impoverish it. The biggest issue is with Strategy\u2019s enshrined option to sell Bitcoin<\/span>. OG X poster Light<\/a> believes they\u2019ve already started.<\/p>\n

JPMorgan warned that turning crypto\u2019s biggest buyer into a potential seller<\/a> introduces a two-way flow risk the market now has to price. Once you write down the conditions under which you\u2019ll sell, traders will game the probability of those conditions<\/a> being met every time STRC wobbles near par.<\/p>\n

Hopefully that will not happen, and (as Jordi Alexander predicts<\/a>) we will not be talking about Mr. Saylor or Strategy in six months.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s noise on CT ( Crypto<\/span> Twitter) about a new memecoin season<\/a>. Ansem is participating in a Solana memecoin based on his persona<\/a>. Many celebrated (some in the unseemly ways<\/a> of past memecoin<\/span> frenchies), notably exchanges<\/a> and tracking platforms<\/a> that benefit from trading activity<\/a>. Others did not<\/a>.<\/p>\n

One prominent poster said: we\u2019ve got some more retail to kill<\/a>, or perhaps we should shoot ourselves<\/a>. The legendary duck sums up the side against this stuff: KOLs extracted the entire space to zero<\/a> and are now launching celebrity coins again to extract some more. This feels like crypto<\/span>\u2019s version of Groundhog Day. If a \u201c memecoin<\/span> szn<\/i>\u201d happens without liquidity<\/span> entering the space predominantly for productive purposes, it means 6 more weeks (months, years?) of the market nuking<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Historically speaking, being the memecoin<\/span> main character has a short shelf life. If anyone can persist, it should be Ansem, but the odds are not great.<\/p>\n

There was another memecoin<\/span> story, one with implications outside of crypto<\/span>. Trump disclosed more than $1.2 billion in crypto earnings<\/a> in his annual filing. Even seasoned crypto<\/span> degens habituated to this stuff were surprised. TXMC, max-cynical from day one, admitted the man has a way of exceeding expectations<\/a>, while Dyme, who was willing to forgive a little grift as the cost of pro- crypto<\/span> policy, drew the line at \u201cludicrous\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n

None of this memecoin<\/span> nonsense helps the institutions, the suits, or anyone within a stone\u2019s throw of tradfi take crypto<\/span> seriously. Thank goodness the memecoin<\/span> shenanigans were offset by real projects doing interesting things, precipitating quality discussions.<\/p>\n

The best of these was around Venice raising a $65 million Series A<\/a>. Venice\u2019s VVV token rallied on the news, but fell after digesting the token-equity split conundrum. Can a project with a representative token grow in value while equity and shareholders exist?<\/p>\n

Some believe that token-equity splits like this aren\u2019t defensible in crypto anymore<\/a>. and more bluntly, tokens with equity do not work<\/a>. Dankrad piled on with the legal asymmetry: Equity holders have enforceable protections; token holders have trust me bro, we\u2019ll keep buying and burning<\/a>. Not to mention the fact that the company has a fiduciary duty to maximize value for exactly one of those groups.<\/p>\n

Algod agreed with basically all of it<\/a>: bootstrap through the token, then funnel the value to equity. Voorhees, defending himself online<\/a>, flipped the critique around: 99.9% of tokens designed to date have failed and will keep failing.<\/p>\n

Whoever\u2019s right, the broader vibe shift is unmistakable. NEAR\u2019s co-founder Illia Polosukhin declared token burns a very ineffective way<\/a> to generate value and is drafting a proposal to move NEAR toward a fixed supply. Crypto<\/span> participants are growing up. There\u2019s a class action lawsuit against Magic Eden over misleading ME token promises, and crypto<\/span> natives are creating dashboards to track token revenue<\/a> versus token emissions. We\u2019re speedrunning tradfi, currently reinventing discounted cash flow analysis<\/a> from first principles!<\/p>\n

Speaking of tradfi, there were several big crypto-related announcements this week. A whole bunch of legacy finance and web2 companies banded together for a new stablecoin called Open USD<\/a> (OUSD), with zero-fee minting, no volume<\/span> caps, and nearly all reserve yield shared back to partners instead of retained by a single issuer.<\/p>\n

Omid Malekan was not impressed<\/a>. Scott Melker pointed out that these 140-plus firms in finance just organized to capture that yield for themselves<\/a>. Pledditor called it an Old Boys Club coming in to topple the moats Tether and Circle built<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Elon Musk announced X Money<\/a>, the financial leg of X, reportedly launching with 6% APY<\/a>, up to $10 million in FDIC sweep insurance, unlimited 3% cash back and a physical metal Visa card. Austin Campbell ran the sober evaluation<\/a>: The 6% APY<\/span> is promotional and won\u2019t survive contact with math, but $10 million of FDIC coverage, a built-in P2P network riding X\u2019s social graph, and 3% cash back is a genuinely serious fintech product. Notably absent thus far is anything related to crypto<\/span>.<\/p>\n

X Money will have a hard time catching up with other fintech super apps such as Robinhood, which launched its own chain<\/a>, an Arbitrum-Orbit L2<\/a> purpose-built for tokenized assets. Yano was impressed that apps are paying to join the chain<\/a> versus the opposite. Distribution is king. Case in point: Dydx went from being the leading perp DEX<\/a> to an L2<\/a>, to now being an app (with a new name, Arcus<\/a>) on Robinhood Chain.<\/p>\n

How the mighty have fallen. But that\u2019s crypto<\/a>, baby!<\/p>\n

-David Sencil<\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Source link <\/a>
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(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) The stock market pushed higher once again this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the green, and the Dow Jones staging a massive rally to new all-time highs as of Friday morning. The dollar continues to show strength. Luke Gromen believes a \u201ctoo strong\u201d dollar will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":74984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74983"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74983\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74984"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}