{"id":74989,"date":"2026-07-05T21:03:38","date_gmt":"2026-07-05T21:03:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitwise-sees-bottom-forming-ahead-of-fall-rally\/"},"modified":"2026-07-05T21:03:38","modified_gmt":"2026-07-05T21:03:38","slug":"bitwise-sees-bottom-forming-ahead-of-fall-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitwise-sees-bottom-forming-ahead-of-fall-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise Sees Bottom Forming Ahead of Fall Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitwise CIO says Strategy\u2019s volatility reflects a typical late-cycle leverage unwind, not structural weakness in bitcoin demand.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">He argues the current phase is excess leverage removal, historically a precursor to new bull markets.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The executive cites fear, valuation discounts, and negative funding rates as bottoming signals.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>STRC and Late-Cycle Stress<\/h2>\n<p>Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan explained in a July 1 analysis that STRC, Strategy\u2019s perpetual preferred equity instrument designed to offer high yield while trading near a fixed value, illustrates late-cycle <span>leverage<\/span> dynamics rather than systemic failure.<\/p>\n<p>The key issue is capital quality, he emphasized. STRC attracted yield-seeking investors, while proceeds were used to fund <span>bitcoin<\/span> exposure via Strategy\u2019s (Nasdaq: MSTR) balance sheet. The structure worked in rising markets but weakened as <span>bitcoin<\/span> declined.<\/p>\n<p>Explaining why he believes the current correction is nearing its end, Hougan said:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cAs the market continues to sort things out, I\u2019m convinced the bottom is closer than ever\u2014and that we will enter a new <span>bull market<\/span> in the fall.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He noted that <span>bull markets<\/span> often drive increasingly complex <span>leverage<\/span> structures that later unwind under stress. STRC, he argued, is one example within a broader deleveraging cycle.<\/p>\n<p>The executive added that capital flowing into STRC \u201cnever really fit <span>bitcoin<\/span>,\u201d and that ongoing deleveraging is removing excess built during the rally, a necessary step before a durable bottom forms.<\/p>\n<h2>Why the Rebound Does Not End the Debate<\/h2>\n<p> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> has recovered from recent lows near $60,000, trading around $62,741 on <span>Bitcoin.com<\/span> Markets. Hougan said this does not confirm a cycle reset. He distinguished between price recovery and market structure. He said prior cycles had seen similar rebounds during ongoing forced deleveraging.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_828810\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-828810\" style=\"width:922px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-828810\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"> <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s price chart via <span>Bitcoin.com<\/span> Markets.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>From this view, STRC <span>volatility<\/span> and <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s rebound reflect the same adjustment phase: one in structured yield products, the other in spot markets. Short-term stabilization may reflect temporary relief rather than trend reversal.<\/p>\n<h2>Signals of a Potential Bottom<\/h2>\n<p>Hougan said bottoms cannot be identified with certainty but outlined indicators to watch.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut there are a few signs that I\u2019d watch for in the near future,\u201d he wrote. \u201cOne would be MSTR trading at a discount to its net asset value. That would be a sure signal that greed has fully transformed into fear, a ripe condition for a market bottom.\u201d He added:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cAnother signal worth watching is the <span>Crypto<\/span> Fear and Greed Index; I get <span>bullish<\/span> as it heads towards all-time lows (i.e. extreme fear).\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cAnother would be <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-leverage-in-crypto-trading\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">leverage<\/a> funding rates turning decidedly negative, indicating more retail interest in shorting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> than going long. In other words, you want it to be so bad it\u2019s good,\u201d he further shared.<\/p>\n<p>The Bitwise CIO emphasized positioning over price, focusing on whether speculative excess has been cleared. He concluded that STRC <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-volatility\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">volatility<\/a> fits a late-cycle deleveraging phase that may precede a new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> uptrend.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bull-market-in-sight-bitwise-sees-bottom-forming-ahead-of-fall-rally\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Bitwise CIO says Strategy\u2019s volatility reflects a typical late-cycle leverage unwind, not structural weakness in bitcoin demand. He argues the current phase is excess leverage removal, historically a precursor to new bull markets. The executive cites fear, valuation discounts, and negative funding rates as bottoming signals. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":74990,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74989"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74989"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74989\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}