{"id":75046,"date":"2026-07-07T01:32:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T01:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss\/"},"modified":"2026-07-07T01:32:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T01:32:10","slug":"bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Miner Stress Hits &#8216;Historically Rare&#8217; Level as 20% of Miners Operate at a Loss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Similar miner-stress declines appeared near bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2018 and 2020.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">JPMorgan estimates bitcoin has traded below its $78,000 production cost for five straight months.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Vaneck found past hashrate contractions preceded median 90-day returns in the high-40% range.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>A Rare Signal From the Mining Trenches<\/h2>\n<p>The latest reading blends several miner-health indicators, including profitability and revenue gauges, into a single measure of how much pressure the network\u2019s block producers are under. On the subject, prominent <span>crypto<\/span> analyst Wu <span>Blockchain<\/span> noted:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe Miner Cycle Stress Composite has fallen to a new 2026 low and entered its \u2018undervalued\u2019 range. Similar synchronized declines previously appeared near major <span>Bitcoin<\/span> bottoms in 2015, 2018, 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<figure id=\"attachment_829000\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-829000\" style=\"width:1200px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-829000\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"> <span>Bitcoin<\/span> Miner Stress has reached a historically low level.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The individual components tell the same story. The Puell Multiple, a metric that compares daily miner revenue to its yearly average, has dropped to 0.74, meaning miners are earning roughly a quarter less than their 12-month norm. Miner revenue has fallen 11% over the past 10 days, while <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s <span>hashrate<\/span> has declined more than 25% since October 2025, one of the longest sustained drawdowns on record.<\/p>\n<h2>One in Five Miners Is Underwater<\/h2>\n<p>The stress is not merely statistical, as JPMorgan analysts estimate <span>bitcoin<\/span> has traded below its average production cost of roughly $78,000 for five consecutive months, leaving about <a href=\"https:\/\/wublockchain.medium.com\/global-crypto-mining-news-in-june-miner-profitability-hits-record-low-bitcoin-mining-difficulty-df7ffc97e30b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">20% of miners operating at a loss<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The network seems to be adjusting to the exodus, given <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s mining difficulty, the measure of how hard it is to find a new block, was <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-difficulty-drops-10-to-lowest-level-since-july-2025-as-hashrate-cools\/\">cut 10.09%<\/a> to 124.93 trillion in the latest major adjustment, the second-largest downward move of 2026 after February\u2019s 11.16% drop.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, <span>Bitcoin.com<\/span> News reported earlier this year that miners absorbed an <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/miners-absorb-18-hashprice-crash-as-bitcoin-difficulty-jumps-7-15\/\">18% hashprice crash<\/a> even as difficulty jumped 7.15%, with hashprice, the expected daily revenue per petahash of computing power, sliding to $28.68.<\/p>\n<p>The pressure is claiming casualties. Japan\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/sbi-crypto-pulls-the-plug-on-bitcoin-pool-as-20412-ph-s-hunts-for-a-new-home\/\">SBI Crypto said<\/a> last week it will close its <span>bitcoin mining<\/span> pool after five years, sending 20,412 PH\/s, just over 2% of the global <span>hashrate<\/span>, hunting for a new home before the pool stops accepting shares on July 30.<\/p>\n<p>Asset manager Coinshares, meanwhile, has described mining <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-mining-margins-tighten-as-ai-pivot-accelerates-coinshares-says\/\">margins as tightening<\/a> across the industry, estimating that 15\u201320% of miners are unprofitable and noting that many operators are accelerating a pivot toward artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing workloads to survive.<\/p>\n<p>The demand side has offered little relief. U.S. spot <span>bitcoin<\/span> exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their worst month since launch in June, bleeding $4.5 billion as <span>bitcoin<\/span> slipped below $60,000 during the month\u2019s weakest stretch.<\/p>\n<h2>What Past Capitulations Suggest Comes Next<\/h2>\n<p>Periods of extreme miner stress have historically clustered near cycle lows rather than tops. Vaneck\u2019s research on previous <span>hashrate<\/span> contractions found that, excluding the network\u2019s early history, <span>bitcoin<\/span> delivered a median forward return in the high-40% range over the 90 days that followed such episodes.<\/p>\n<p>The firm\u2019s analysts sketched three 90-day scenarios at the time: a constructive path of 10% to 35% upside, a \u201ccapitulation-lite\u201d range of -5% to +20%, and a <span>bearish<\/span> case of losses up to 30%.<\/p>\n<p>Onchain analysts see the same tension. Cryptoquant\u2019s Miner Capitulation Index has climbed above 65, a level analyst Axel Adler Jr. described as evidence of building stress, though he emphasized it remains below the extremes of the 2022 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bear market<\/a>, when miner capitulation moved hand in hand with a 65% drawdown in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s price.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_829005\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-829005\" style=\"width:1302px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-829005\" src=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss3_nwmk.jpg\" alt=\"Tweet discussing Bitcoin's recent dip in mining difficulty.\" width=\"1302\" height=\"267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss3_nwmk-300x62.jpg 300w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss3_nwmk-1024x210.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss3_nwmk-768x157.jpg 768w, https:\/\/static.news.bitcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss3_nwmk.jpg 1302w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1302px) 100vw, 1302px\"\/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-829005\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image source: X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>That said, undervalued miner readings alone do not guarantee a reversal, and with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> down nearly 50% from its October 2025 high near $126,200, sellers have repeatedly overwhelmed hopeful technical signals this year. The next test comes at the upcoming difficulty adjustment, where another deep cut would confirm that unprofitable <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-bitcoin-hashrate\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">hashrate<\/a> is still leaving the network.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-miner-stress-hits-historically-rare-level-as-20-of-miners-operate-at-a-loss\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Similar miner-stress declines appeared near bitcoin bottoms in 2015, 2018 and 2020. JPMorgan estimates bitcoin has traded below its $78,000 production cost for five straight months. Vaneck found past hashrate contractions preceded median 90-day returns in the high-40% range. A Rare Signal From the Mining Trenches [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":75047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75046"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75046"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75046\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}