{"id":75598,"date":"2026-07-19T03:18:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T03:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-flashes-end-of-bear-signal-as-cost-basis-crossover-suggests-final-bear-market-phase\/"},"modified":"2026-07-19T03:18:31","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T03:18:31","slug":"bitcoin-flashes-end-of-bear-signal-as-cost-basis-crossover-suggests-final-bear-market-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoin-flashes-end-of-bear-signal-as-cost-basis-crossover-suggests-final-bear-market-phase\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Flashes \u2018End of Bear\u2019 Signal as Cost Basis Crossover Suggests Final Bear Market Phase"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin\u2019s short-term holder cost basis has crossed below the adjusted long-term holder level, triggering an \u201cend of bear market\u201d signal.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The short-term holder cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000, consistent with recently acquired bitcoin changing hands at lower prices.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The signal points to a late-stage bear market, not a confirmed bottom or new bull cycle.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Bitcoin\u2019s Bear Market May Be Entering Its Final Phase<\/h2>\n<p> <span>Blockchain<\/span> analytics platform Cryptoquant <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/6a5b2c577a878621f5277ec5-The-end-of-the-bear-market-is-coming-into-view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">shared<\/a> an analysis on July 18 suggesting <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s <span>bear market<\/span> may be approaching its final stage. The signal compares the average acquisition prices of short-term and long-term holders.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst said:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe end of the <span>bear market<\/span> is approaching.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Cost basis refers to the average price at which investors acquired <span>bitcoin<\/span>. Short-term holders, or STHs, have held <span>bitcoin<\/span> for less than six months, while long-term holders, or LTHs, have held the <span>crypto<\/span> for more than six months.<\/p>\n<p>The signal appeared when the STH cost basis fell below the adjusted LTH cost basis. The crossover indicates that the average cost basis of short-term holder supply has fallen below that of adjusted long-term holder supply.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst explained:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe end-of-bear-market signal has just flashed. This signal is defined by the downward crossover of the STH\/LTH cost basis (with a 3-day confirmation window to validate the signal).\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The crossover marks a shift in holder positioning rather than an exact market bottom. <span>Bitcoin<\/span> could remain <span>volatile<\/span> or trade lower before a sustained recovery develops.<\/p>\n<h2>Chart Shows the Crossover Sequence Across Bitcoin Cycles<\/h2>\n<p>The chart included in the analysis plots <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s price alongside the short-term holder (STH) cost basis and the adjusted long-term holder (LTH) cost basis. It also marks \u201cend of bear\u201d signals and later upward crossovers that the analysis associates with confirmed bull-market phases.<br \/><\/p>\n<p>The newest \u201cend of bear\u201d marker appears where the STH cost basis falls below the adjusted LTH cost basis. Earlier cycles show the same sequence: a downward crossover, followed later by an upward crossover and bull-market confirmation.<\/p>\n<p>The interval between the \u201cend of bear\u201d and bull-market confirmation markers shows that <span>bitcoin<\/span> can remain in a transitional phase after the initial signal. The first crossover points to the <span>bear market<\/span>\u2019s final stage, while the later reversal suggests the average cost basis of newer buyers is rising progressively.<\/p>\n<h2>Falling Cost Basis Reflects Buying at Lower Prices<\/h2>\n<p>According to the analysis, the short-term holder cost basis has declined from $112,500 to $69,000. The drop is consistent with <span>bitcoin<\/span> acquired within the past six months changing hands at lower prices.<\/p>\n<p>This activity reduced the average STH acquisition price. The LTH cost basis changes more gradually because it reflects <span>bitcoin<\/span> accumulated over a longer period. The adjusted LTH calculation excludes <span>bitcoin<\/span> held for more than seven years. The exclusion limits the influence of dormant supply and focuses the metric on long-term holdings considered economically active.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis presents the crossover as a recurring feature of <span>bitcoin<\/span> cycles: short-term holders accumulate <span>bitcoin<\/span> during prolonged declines until their average cost basis falls below that of active long-term holders. It also argues institutional participation has not fundamentally changed this pattern.<\/p>\n<h2>Signal Supports DCA Before Bull-Market Confirmation<\/h2>\n<p>The analysis describes the crossover as the start of a late-stage accumulation period rather than confirmation that prices will immediately recover.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst noted:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThis doesn\u2019t mean the <span>bear market<\/span> ends the moment the signal fires and the bottom is in, but it indicates we are entering its final phase, a period during which establishing a <span>DCA<\/span> makes sense.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p> <span>Dollar-cost averaging<\/span>, or <span>DCA<\/span>, involves investing fixed amounts over time rather than committing all capital at one price. The strategy reduces reliance on identifying the exact market bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Under the analyst\u2019s framework, a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bull market<\/a> would require the short-term holder cost basis to rise back above the adjusted long-term holder level. That upward crossover would match the confirmation observed in earlier cycles and suggest that recently acquired <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> is changing hands at progressively higher average prices. Until then, the signal suggests <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a>\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bear market<\/a> may be nearing its end without confirming that a new bull cycle has begun.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoin-flashes-end-of-bear-signal-as-cost-basis-crossover-suggests-final-bear-market-phase\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Bitcoin\u2019s short-term holder cost basis has crossed below the adjusted long-term holder level, triggering an \u201cend of bear market\u201d signal. The short-term holder cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000, consistent with recently acquired bitcoin changing hands at lower prices. The signal points to a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":75599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75598"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}