{"id":75650,"date":"2026-07-20T09:45:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T09:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/chamath-palihapitiya-sees-2-problems-facing-bitcoin-bulls-heres-his-argument\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T09:45:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T09:45:51","slug":"chamath-palihapitiya-sees-2-problems-facing-bitcoin-bulls-heres-his-argument","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/chamath-palihapitiya-sees-2-problems-facing-bitcoin-bulls-heres-his-argument\/","title":{"rendered":"Chamath Palihapitiya Sees 2 Problems Facing Bitcoin Bulls: Here&#8217;s His Argument"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Chamath Palihapitiya said marginal liquidity now prefers prediction markets and equities over bitcoin.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin\u2019s hashrate slid 7.9% to 908 EH\/s this month, forcing a 5% difficulty cut as miners eye AI computing deals.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket traders give bitcoin just 10% odds of reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, as BTC currently trends near $64,000.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>A Two-Front Squeeze<\/h2>\n<p>The Social Capital founder\u2019s argument, highlighted in a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/chamath\/status\/2078881723555647642\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">post on X<\/a>, states that the incremental dollar and the incremental megawatt (resources that once flowed to <span>bitcoin<\/span> by default) now have more attractive destinations, adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Marginal <span>liquidity<\/span> would rather speculate in prediction and equity markets, and marginal energy to mine <span>BTC<\/span> is worth far more if redirected to AI.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Palihapitiya is no stranger to provocative <span>bitcoin<\/span> calls, given that he was an early adopter who once urged everyone to put 1% of their net worth into the asset (even floating a $240,000 long-term price target). Yet in March, he questioned <span>bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s suitability as a central bank reserve asset, arguing its traceability weakens fungibility.<\/p>\n<p>On July 14, he warned separately that unchecked AI \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/07\/14\/chamath-palihapitiya-ai-tokenmaxxing.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">tokenmaxxing<\/a>\u201d spending is quietly eroding corporate earnings.<\/p>\n<h2>The Data Behind Both Claims<\/h2>\n<p>On the <span>liquidity<\/span> side, <span>prediction markets<\/span> posted a record <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/prediction-markets-hit-record-10-8-billion-week-as-spacex-ipo-world-cup-drive-surge\/\">$10.8 billion week<\/a> this summer, as the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO), the FIFA World Cup and geopolitics pulled speculative capital into event contracts. Polymarket traders currently price just 10% odds of <span>bitcoin<\/span> reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, while giving 67% odds it reaches $70,000.<\/p>\n<p>On the energy side, the migration is already measurable as <span>Bitcoin<\/span>\u2019s <span>hashrate<\/span> fell 7.9% in ten days to 908 EH\/s, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin.com<\/a> News reported that the network\u2019s difficulty dropped 5% to <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/bitcoins-14th-difficulty-reset-slashes-mining-pressure-by-6-7-trillion\/\">127.17 trillion<\/a> on July 11 (its 14th reset of 2026) as miners diverted machines and megawatts elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>Industry analysts have described miners as abandoning the network for AI and high-performance computing contracts, with one setting a 2028 deadline for the trend to peak.<\/p>\n<h2>Pushback From Coinbase\u2019s Chief<\/h2>\n<p>Not everyone seems to be onboard such a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bull-market-vs-bear-market\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bearish<\/a> read, with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responding the same day that \u201chash power or energy going to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/what-is-bitcoin-mining\/\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Bitcoin mining<\/a> doesn\u2019t determine its price,\u201d noting the network\u2019s difficulty automatically adjusts when miners go offline to keep blocks flowing at the same pace.<\/p>\n<p>The debate now turns on whether the squeeze is structural or cyclical. The next difficulty adjustments, the pace of miner AI deals, and whether prediction-market volumes keep compounding will show whether the marginal dollar and megawatt come back to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" class=\"lar_link lar_link_outgoing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin<\/a> or whether the bulls must win without them.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/chamath-palihapitiya-two-problems-bitcoin-bulls\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Chamath Palihapitiya said marginal liquidity now prefers prediction markets and equities over bitcoin. Bitcoin\u2019s hashrate slid 7.9% to 908 EH\/s this month, forcing a 5% difficulty cut as miners eye AI computing deals. Polymarket traders give bitcoin just 10% odds of reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":75651,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75650"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75650\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75651"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}