{"id":76376,"date":"2026-08-04T20:57:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T20:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/us-senators-target-wildfire-bets-in-new-cftc-rule-fight\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T20:57:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T20:57:00","slug":"us-senators-target-wildfire-bets-in-new-cftc-rule-fight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/us-senators-target-wildfire-bets-in-new-cftc-rule-fight\/","title":{"rendered":"US Senators Target Wildfire Bets in New CFTC Rule Fight"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Nine Democratic senators asked the CFTC to prohibit wildfire event contracts by Aug. 14.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Lawmakers cited $1.2M in trading tied to California\u2019s 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket says the markets inform rather than exploit, and pulling them prevents nothing.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!-- --> <\/p>\n<h2>Democratic Senators Want Wildfire Prediction Contracts Banned Over Arson Fears<\/h2>\n<p>Nine U.S. senators <a href=\"https:\/\/www.merkley.senate.gov\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026.08.03-LTR-Wildfire-Prediction-Markets-FINAL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">asked<\/a> the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to restrict prediction contracts tied to wildfires, arguing that traders could profit from fires lasting longer, spreading farther or destroying more property. The Aug. 3 letter requests answers from CFTC Chairman Michael Selig by Aug. 14.<\/p>\n<p>Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.merkley.senate.gov\/merkley-padilla-shaheen-schiff-rosen-cortez-masto-heinrich-wyden-klobuchar-cftc-must-rein-in-wildfire-bets-on-prediction-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">led the letter<\/a> with Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Adam Schiff (D-CA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC. All signatories represent states hit by fires this season, with roughly 1.7 million acres having burned in Oregon alone through late July.<\/p>\n<p>The senators are asking whether the commission is considering prohibiting designated contract markets from offering wildfire event contracts as part of the rulemaking now underway, \u201cgiven they are against the public\u2019s interest,\u201d and whether it has any plans to curb wildfire bets on prediction markets in the United States.<\/p>\n<p>The lawmakers stated they wrote following public reporting on the markets and that Polymarket generated more than $1.2 million in trading tied to the Palisades and Eaton fires that struck the Los Angeles area in January 2025. One official market covering when the Palisades fire would be <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/when-will-the-palisades-fire-be-fully-contained\/will-the-palisades-fire-be-fully-contained-by-january-31\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">fully contained<\/a> recorded $711,587 in volume, while other contracts covered <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-acres-will-los-angeles-wildfires-burn-by-sunday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">acreage burned<\/a> and whether the fire would <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/will-palisades-fire-spread-to-beverly-hills-by-sunday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">reach Beverly Hills<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOffering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities\u2019 suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,\u201d the senators wrote, adding there is \u201calso the heightened risk \u2013 according to state and local fire officials \u2013 that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As of writing, no confirmed incident of arson has been linked to prediction-market activity, and the letter does not allege that any trader started a fire or interfered with emergency operations \u2013 but the logic is the same insider-access concern behind the federal case against an Army master sergeant who <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/maduro-raid-commando-pleads-not-guilty-after-400k-polymarket-bet-on-his-own-mission\/\">turned $33,000 into more than $404,000<\/a> on Polymarket ahead of the Maduro raid.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket rejected the framing. \u201cWhen tragedy unfolds, people turn to the news for commentary and to Polymarket for information,\u201d the company said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-08-03\/prediction-market-bets-on-wildfires-draw-scrutiny-from-senators\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in a statement to Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cWhile we recognize the risks associated with these markets, removing them does not prevent a tragedy. It only makes timely, market-based information less accessible to those seeking to understand what may happen next.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Commodity Exchange Act allows the CFTC to prohibit event contracts involving terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, unlawful activity or another similar activity that the commission determines by rule to be contrary to the public interest. Wildfires are not expressly listed in the act. Merkley previously led an April <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/senate-democrats-urge-cftc-to-ban-sports-and-election-contracts-on-kalshi-and-polymarket\/\">letter<\/a> asking the CFTC to prohibit contracts tied to elections, war, military action, sports and government decisions when they lack an economic hedging purpose. The commission did not take that route: <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/cftc-says-sports-contracts-involve-gaming-but-proposes-to-allow-almost-all-of-them\/\">its June proposal<\/a> accepted that sports contracts involve gaming while proposing to permit nearly all of them through a case-by-case 90-day review process, rather than barring any category outright. In this process, the regulator would assess each contract separately using factors including economic utility, hedging demand, manipulation risk, participant protections and the availability of reliable settlement information.<\/p>\n<p>The senators acknowledged in their letter that the wildfire contracts they identified appear to have been offered only through Polymarket\u2019s international platform, which states on its own market pages that it operates independently from the CFTC-regulated Polymarket US. The request is therefore partly preemptive \u2013 as they put it, \u201cit is only a matter of time before other U.S. based Designated Contract Markets try to offer these.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The CFTC did not immediately respond to Bloomberg\u2019s request for comment.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/igaming\/us-senators-target-wildfire-bets-in-new-cftc-rule-fight\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Nine Democratic senators asked the CFTC to prohibit wildfire event contracts by Aug. 14. Lawmakers cited $1.2M in trading tied to California\u2019s 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires. Polymarket says the markets inform rather than exploit, and pulling them prevents nothing. Democratic Senators Want Wildfire Prediction Contracts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362403,"featured_media":76377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76376"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362403"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76376\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76377"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}