{"id":76592,"date":"2026-08-10T00:03:08","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T00:03:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/clarity-act-odds-sink-as-senate-delay-threatens-2026-crypto-vote\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T00:03:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T00:03:08","slug":"clarity-act-odds-sink-as-senate-delay-threatens-2026-crypto-vote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/clarity-act-odds-sink-as-senate-delay-threatens-2026-crypto-vote\/","title":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act Odds Sink as Senate Delay Threatens 2026 Crypto Vote"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act at 21% to become law by Dec. 31.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Galaxy Research previously cut its 2026 passage estimate from 50% to 30%.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">The Senate filed a cloture motion Aug. 8 without holding a floor vote.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Why Is the CLARITY Act Priced at 21%?<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket traders <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">assigned the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act a 21% chance<\/a> of becoming law by Dec. 31, with more than $5.5 million in trading volume as of Aug. 9. That price puts a number on the question facing U.S. exchanges, token issuers, and custodians: whether comprehensive federal crypto rules arrive this year.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_838299\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-838299\" style=\"width:1275px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-838299\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Polymarket\u2019s CLARITY Act odds of being signed into law in 2026. Source: Polymarket<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Introduced as H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act) is a market structure bill that divides oversight of digital assets between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Senate negotiators merged the Banking and Agriculture committee versions into a 616-page text of 104 sections covering ethics, enforcement, custody, and stablecoin provisions.<\/p>\n<p>Galaxy Research had already <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/clarity-act-passage-odds-cut-to-30-as-senate-vote-faces-challenges\/\">trimmed its own passage estimate from 50% to 30%<\/a> on July 24, pointing to the unresolved disputes now weighing on the contract.<\/p>\n<h2>What Are Senators Actually Fighting Over?<\/h2>\n<p>Democratic lawmakers concentrated their objections on the bill\u2019s ethics language covering elected officials and digital-asset businesses. Minority staff at the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs argued on July 30 that those provisions would <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/clarity-act-faces-new-senate-threat-over-trump-crypto-gains\/\">leave President Donald Trump\u2019s existing crypto interests largely untouched<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Committee staff widened the critique on Aug. 5, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.banking.senate.gov\/newsroom\/minority\/new-banking-minority-staff-analysis-identifies-five-major-loopholes-in-digital-asset-market-clarity-act\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">identifying five provisions they characterized as major loopholes<\/a>. Their list spanned securities law, illicit finance, financial stability, consumer protections and ethics, extending the dispute from political safeguards into the rules that would govern trading platforms, pensions and regulators.<\/p>\n<p>Negotiators entered August with three open items: ethics enforcement, illicit finance provisions and stablecoin yield. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Galaxy expects at least two to vote against, leaving supporters near 50 dependable votes and short of the 60 required to break a filibuster.<\/p>\n<h2>Why Did the Senate Miss Its August Deadline?<\/h2>\n<p>Supporters entered the final pre-recess stretch with a merged text built to satisfy two committees at once. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), who chairs the Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lummis.senate.gov\/press-releases\/lummis-releases-updated-clarity-act-text\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">released updated CLARITY Act<\/a> language on July 22 combining Banking and Agriculture committee work.<\/p>\n<p>Opposition hardened as the recess approached, and the procedural vote never materialized. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated on Aug. 3 that the bill would reach the floor before the break, then confirmed on Aug. 6 that no August vote would occur, two days after Democrats signaled they would withhold cloture support absent movement on the three open items.<\/p>\n<p>The chamber filed a cloture motion on the motion to proceed on Aug. 8, its latest recorded action, starting the procedural clock without settling the text. Senators return Sept. 14, placing <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/moreno-signals-end-to-clarity-act-talks-ahead-of-cloture-vote\/\">the first cloture vote<\/a> on Sept. 15 under Senate procedure.<\/p>\n<h2>How Do Polymarket Prices Translate Into Odds?<\/h2>\n<p>Prediction markets convert legislative news into prices that traders back with capital, which is why the 21% figure keeps moving. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/defi-and-web3\/prediction-markets\/what-is-polymarket\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Polymarket is a prediction market<\/a> where contracts settle at $1 once an event resolves, so a share changing hands near 21 cents implies a 21% probability.<\/p>\n<p>September returns senators to an unresolved text, a 60-vote threshold and ethics language no side has yet accepted. Payout on the contract requires more than a Senate floor win. The bill must clear Congress and receive a presidential signature before Dec. 31, leaving less than five months on the calendar and a considerably shorter congressional working window for those steps.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/regulation-and-legal\/clarity-act-odds-sink-as-senate-delay-threatens-2026-crypto-vote\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act at 21% to become law by Dec. 31. Galaxy Research previously cut its 2026 passage estimate from 50% to 30%. The Senate filed a cloture motion Aug. 8 without holding a floor vote. Why Is the CLARITY Act Priced at 21%? [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":76593,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76592"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76592"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76592\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76593"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}