{"id":77125,"date":"2026-08-22T02:54:32","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T02:54:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/analysts-see-strong-bitcoin-rally-but-profit-taking-risk-remains\/"},"modified":"2026-08-22T02:54:32","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T02:54:32","slug":"analysts-see-strong-bitcoin-rally-but-profit-taking-risk-remains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/analysts-see-strong-bitcoin-rally-but-profit-taking-risk-remains\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts See Strong Bitcoin Rally, But Profit-Taking Risk Remains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin buyers from the past five months profit above $68,000.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Coins sent to exchanges in profit are the rally\u2019s biggest threat.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $606 million on Aug. 20, the most since May.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Why Bitfinex Sees a Longer Runway Than a Squeeze<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-holds-77k-as-bulls-keep-augusts-best-week-in-play\/\">climb to a multi-month high<\/a> has left every buyer from the past five months sitting on a paper gain. The price peaked at $79,491 on Aug. 21, and analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said spot demand and short covering, not fresh leverage, carried the move. Rallies built on borrowed money unwind faster than rallies built on cash purchases.<\/p>\n<p>In a statement to Bitcoin.com News, Bitfinex analysts shared:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cSqueeze-led rallies usually carry a question mark over whether they hold, because liquidations do the lifting.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u201cHere the combination of ETF demand, the macro shift and the absence of heavy selling gives this one a longer runway, with small retracements along the way,\u201d they added.<\/p>\n<h2>What Pushed Yields Down and Bitcoin Up<\/h2>\n<p>The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on Aug. 19 that it would <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0607\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">double the maximum size of its long-end liquidity support buybacks<\/a>. Each operation will now reach at least $4 billion, up from $2 billion, and the larger sizes apply from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4.<\/p>\n<p>Liquidity conditions have shaped BTC\u2019s price for a decade, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/trading-and-investing\/market-dynamics\/bitcoins-4-year-cycle\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">bitcoin\u2019s four-year boom-and-bust cycle<\/a> providing historical context for those shifts. Global liquidity indices have shown roughly 90% correlation with bitcoin since 2015, while cheaper funding at the long end of the curve tends to support risk assets.<\/p>\n<p>Short sellers took the first hit on Aug. 19, when <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-rips-toward-70k-as-1-3b-short-squeeze-erupts\/\">bitcoin jumped to $69,749<\/a> and about $1.48 billion in crypto positions liquidated inside an hour, most of them shorts. Spot bitcoin ETFs added $297.6 million the same session. The squeeze supplied the first leg, and what followed came from buyers paying cash.<\/p>\n<h2>Spot Buying or Leverage: How to Tell the Difference<\/h2>\n<p>Open interest measures the total value of futures contracts left open, and it rises when traders add borrowed exposure. A rally that lifts price and open interest together is running on credit. One that lifts price while open interest lags is running on cash.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe shape of the move is the tell. Rallies built on fresh leverage show open interest jumping in step with price. Price climbed 10 to 11 percent while open interest (OI) rose only around 4 percent, which points to spot buying and short covering doing the work, with leverage playing a minor role,\u201d the exchange\u2019s research desk noted, adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe weaker version of this setup is open interest stacking up while price stalls, and that isn\u2019t what happened.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>Why $68,000 Is the Line That Decides the Next Move<\/h2>\n<p>Buyers from the past five months share a cost basis in the $68,000 to $69,000 zone, the level Bitfinex flags as the most important line on the chart. Bitcoin trading above it keeps that cohort in profit and takes away the pressure that pushes underwater buyers to sell any bounce.<\/p>\n<p>The record high of $126,000 in October 2025 gave way to a drawdown that dragged BTC near $64,000 earlier this month. Five <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bitcoin.com\/get-started\/bitcoin\/basics\/bitcoin-price-history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">boom-and-bust cycles<\/a> have shaped that history, each one reshuffling who holds coins at what price.<\/p>\n<h2>What US Buyers Have to Prove This Week<\/h2>\n<p>U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $606.29 million on Aug. 20, their largest single day since May 1, with <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/crypto-news\/bitcoin-ether-etfs-pull-in-827-million-as-crypto-rally-spreads\/\">Blackrock\u2019s IBIT capturing 82% of the total<\/a>. Net assets across the funds reached $90.16 billion, while ether products took in $220.77 million.<\/p>\n<p>A full week at that pace would harden the support beneath the price and mark a real shift in demand structure, by the analysts\u2019 reckoning. Aug. 20 was the fourth consecutive session of inflows. Whether the pace holds through the coming week decides how much of the rally has a floor under it.<\/p>\n<p>The Coinbase Premium gauges whether U.S. buyers pay more for bitcoin than traders on offshore venues. It printed negative in every session from May 19 through late July, a record stretch beyond 70 trading days. Bitfinex treats a return to positive territory as <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.bitfinex.com\/bitfinex-alpha\/what-bitfinex-traders-should-watch-in-august-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">clean confirmation that American demand has come back<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>What Could Stop the Rally<\/h2>\n<p>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Aug. 20 that <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/finance\/were-going-to-increase-the-buyback-treasury-boss-targets-bond-yields\/\">buyback operations could exceed $4 billion<\/a> per issue. The 30-year yield had reached roughly 5.33% earlier in the week, then fell 8 to 10 basis points once Treasury confirmed the larger operations. Long-dated bonds remain the pressure point for risk assets.<\/p>\n<p>The Bitfinex team cautioned:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThe obvious risk is the volume of bitcoin sent to exchanges in profit during this move, which could turn into the largest profit-taking wave of the year if it lands.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Real yields climbing back to the levels that pinned bitcoin below $65,000 through July would test the rally faster than any on-chain signal. Bitfinex analysts warned on Aug. 4 that the <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/btc-hits-64360-but-bitfinex-warns-of-downside-risks\/\">market stays macro-dependent<\/a>, with strain from long-dated bonds passing straight through to price. Treasury figures released Aug. 19 put the national debt above $40 trillion for the first time.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/analysts-see-strong-bitcoin-rally-but-profit-taking-risk-remains\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Bitcoin buyers from the past five months profit above $68,000. Coins sent to exchanges in profit are the rally\u2019s biggest threat. Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $606 million on Aug. 20, the most since May. Why Bitfinex Sees a Longer Runway Than a Squeeze Bitcoin\u2019s climb to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":77126,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77125"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77125\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}