{"id":77391,"date":"2026-08-28T08:22:01","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T08:22:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoins-price-has-stalled-and-arthur-hayes-says-strategy-pays-the-price\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T08:22:01","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T08:22:01","slug":"bitcoins-price-has-stalled-and-arthur-hayes-says-strategy-pays-the-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/bitcoins-price-has-stalled-and-arthur-hayes-says-strategy-pays-the-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Price Has Stalled and Arthur Hayes Says Strategy Pays the Price"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News )<\/b><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"@container mb-[25px] rounded-sm overflow-clip py-0.5 pr-0.5 pl-2.5 bg-success-100\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col gap-m overflow-clip rounded-[6px] !bg-success-10 p-3 @[420px]:p-m\">\n<h2 class=\"m-0 flex items-center gap-s text-[19px] !text-[#1c1c1c] md:text-[20px]\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"16\" height=\"10\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 10\" fill=\"none\" class=\"shrink-0 text-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M1 1.5h14\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><path d=\"M1 8.5h10\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"\/><\/svg><span>Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul class=\"m-0 flex list-none flex-col gap-m pl-0\">\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Arthur Hayes says Strategy\u2019s mNAV premium sat near 0.74x on August 27, erasing its old edge.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Strategy holds 840,447 BTC but owes about $1.5 billion a year in STRK and STRC dividends.<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"m-0 flex items-start gap-s !text-[#434248]\"><span class=\"mt-2 size-2 shrink-0 rounded-full bg-success-100\" aria-hidden=\"true\"\/><span class=\"text-body\">Hayes says Saylor must either issue equity, sell more bitcoin, or trim dividends going forward.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>The Premium Problem<\/h2>\n<p>For years, Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) traded like a leveraged bet on bitcoin\u2019s price, often commanding double or triple the value of the coins sitting on its balance sheet. That gap, known as market value to net asset value (mNAV), is what let the company sell new shares, buy more bitcoin, and repeat the cycle.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=iO2KIY4RINo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">recent appearance<\/a> on Laura Shin\u2019s Unchained Podcast, Hayes argued that the cycle is running out of road now that bitcoin\u2019s price growth has slowed rather than reversed. He noted that bitcoin does not need to fall for Strategy\u2019s model to break. It just has to stop accelerating.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/market-updates\/bitcoin-price-breaches-81000-as-bull-market-momentum-builds\/\">briefly topped $81,000<\/a> on August 25 before easing back toward the high $70,000s, a kind of sideways grind that Hayes says punishes Strategy\u2019s structure. With the stock\u2019s enterprise mNAV compressed to roughly 1.01x and its basic and diluted measures sitting near 0.73x and 0.74x as of August 27, Strategy now trades close to the raw value of the 840,447 BTC on its books. That leaves almost no premium left to fund another buying cycle.<\/p>\n<h2>Three Choices, No Good Ones<\/h2>\n<p>Hayes says the shrinking premium leaves Saylor with three levers, and each carries a cost. He <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WuBlockchain\/status\/2093126415088755129\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">laid out the following scenarios<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strategy can issue new shares, but doing so without a healthy premium dilutes existing holders instead of rewarding them.<\/li>\n<li>It can sell bitcoin outright, cutting against the \u201cnever sell\u201d identity that built the stock\u2019s following.<\/li>\n<li>It can trim dividends on its preferred shares, risking the confidence of income-focused investors who bought in for the yield rather than the bitcoin exposure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That tension is very real given that Bitcoin.com News <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/strategy-sell-bitcoin-dividends-saylor-never-sell-2026\/\">reported in May<\/a> that Strategy held 818,334 BTC at an average cost of $75,537 each, against roughly $1.5 billion a year in combined obligations on two preferred-stock instruments: STRK, paying 8%, and STRC, paying between 10% and 11.5%.<\/p>\n<p>At the pace those dividends were running in May, the company had roughly 18 months of coverage before needing a new funding source. Saylor <a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/strategy-sell-bitcoin-dividends-saylor-never-sell-2026\/\">said at the time<\/a> the company would \u201cprobably sell some bitcoin to pay a dividend just to inoculate the market,\u201d a line Hayes has since mocked, accusing Saylor of playing \u201cJedi mind tricks\u201d with investors over how far those sales could eventually go.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes\u2019 broader argument is not that Strategy collapses overnight but that the stock\u2019s original reason for existing, letting investors pay extra for equity-funded bitcoin exposure, stops making sense once bitcoin\u2019s price is grinding sideways instead of compounding higher.<\/p>\n<p>He has told investors that anyone who wants plain bitcoin exposure through a brokerage account can simply buy a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) instead, without paying for Strategy\u2019s leverage or carrying its dividend overhang.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.bitcoin.com\/featured\/arthur-hayes-strategy-bitcoin-price-mnav\/\">Source link <\/a><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Originally posted on : Bitcoin News ) Key Takeaways Arthur Hayes says Strategy\u2019s mNAV premium sat near 0.74x on August 27, erasing its old edge. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC but owes about $1.5 billion a year in STRK and STRC dividends. Hayes says Saylor must either issue equity, sell more bitcoin, or trim dividends going [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3947362404,"featured_media":77392,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77391"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3947362404"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77391\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowdfundjunction.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}